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Religious Riots and Electoral Politics in India

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  • Iyer, Sriya

    (University of Cambridge)

  • Shrivastava, Anand

    (University of Cambridge)

Abstract

The effect of ethnic violence on electoral results provides useful insights into voter behaviour in democratic societies. Religious riots have claimed more than 14,000 lives in India since 1950. We study the effect of Hindu-Muslim riots on election results in India. We combine data on riots, which have been geo-coded, with electoral data on state legislature elections and control variables on demographics and public goods provision to construct a unique panel data set for 16 large states in India over a 21 year period from 1981-2001. We suggest a new instrument that draws upon the random variation in the day of the week that important Hindu festivals fall on in each year, as set by a lunar calendar. The probability of a riot increases if a Hindu festival falls on a Friday, the holy day for Muslims. This allows us to isolate the causal effect of riots on electoral results. We also correct for under-reporting of riots and how they affect electoral outcomes in nearby districts. We find that riots occurring in the year preceding an election increases the vote share of the Bharatiya Janata Party by 5 to 7 percentage points in the election.

Suggested Citation

  • Iyer, Sriya & Shrivastava, Anand, 2015. "Religious Riots and Electoral Politics in India," IZA Discussion Papers 9522, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    • Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp9522
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    3. H Zeynep Bulutgil & Neeraj Prasad, 2023. "Inequality, elections, and communal riots in India," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 60(4), pages 619-633, July.
    4. Toke Aidt & Gabriel Leon & Max Satchell, 2017. "The Social Dynamics of Collective Action: Evidence from the Captain Swing Riots, 1830-31," CESifo Working Paper Series 6773, CESifo.
    5. Maiti, Surya Nath & Pakrashi, Debayan & Saha, Sarani & Smyth, Russell, 2022. "Don't judge a book by its cover: The role of intergroup contact in reducing prejudice in conflict settings," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 533-548.
    6. Basu, Deepankar, 2021. "Majoritarian politics and hate crimes against religious minorities: Evidence from India, 2009–2018," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    7. Kalra, Aarushi, 2021. "A 'Ghetto' of One's Own: Communal Violence, Residential Segregation and Group Education Outcomes in India," SocArXiv 265r3, Center for Open Science.
    8. Kikuta,Kyosuke, 2022. "Rainy Friday: religious participation and protests," IDE Discussion Papers 859, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    9. Mehic, Adrian, 2024. "Infrastructure Expansion, Tourism, and Electoral Outcomes," Working Paper Series 1490, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    10. Hager, Anselm & Krakowski, Krzysztof & Schaub, Max, 2019. "Ethnic Riots and Prosocial Behavior: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 113(4), pages 1029-1044.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    riots; elections; religion; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Z12 - Other Special Topics - - Cultural Economics - - - Religion
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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