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Fighting for votes: theory and evidence on the causes of electoral violence

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  • Olivier Sterck

Abstract

I develop a theory of pre-electoral violence in which parties resort to violent tactics if political competition is tight and violent supporters are numerous, and if polarization between violent supporters is high. The importance of these conditions varies with the type of violence (clashes, intimidation or murders). I test the model using data on the 2010 elections in Burundi. In line with the model, electoral violence before the election was more likely in municipalities characterized by both close political competition and high density of demobilized combatants. Violence was also more likely where polarization between demobilized combatants was high.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Sterck, 2015. "Fighting for votes: theory and evidence on the causes of electoral violence," CSAE Working Paper Series 2015-19-2, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2015-19-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Turnbull, Megan, 2021. "When armed groups refuse to carry out election violence: Evidence from Nigeria," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Sugata Ghosh & Petros G. Sekeris & Shikha Silwal, 2025. "The political economy of group domination and pre-electoral violence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 38(4), pages 1-31, December.
    3. Siriban, Charles Irvin S., 2023. "Kinship ties and female political participation: The case of Philippine mayors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Rasmané Ouedraogo & Idrissa Ouedraogo, 2019. "Gender Equality and Electoral Violence in Africa: Unlocking the Peacemaking Potential of Women," IMF Working Papers 2019/174, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • N4 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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