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General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence from Kenya

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  • Dennis Egger
  • Johannes Haushofer
  • Edward Miguel
  • Paul Niehaus
  • Michael W. Walker

Abstract

How large economic stimuli generate individual and aggregate responses is a central question in economics, but has not been studied experimentally. We provided one-time cash transfers of about USD 1000 to over 10,500 poor households across 653 randomized villages in rural Kenya. The implied fiscal shock was over 15 percent of local GDP. We find large impacts on consumption and assets for recipients. Importantly, we document large positive spillovers on non-recipient households and firms, and minimal price inflation. We estimate a local transfer multiplier of 2.4. We interpret welfare implications through the lens of a simple household optimization framework.

Suggested Citation

  • Dennis Egger & Johannes Haushofer & Edward Miguel & Paul Niehaus & Michael W. Walker, 2019. "General Equilibrium Effects of Cash Transfers: Experimental Evidence from Kenya," NBER Working Papers 26600, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26600
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    3. Evan Borkum & Paolo Abarcar & Laura Meyer & Matthew Spitzer, "undated". "Jordan Refugee Livelihoods Development Impact Bond Evaluation Framework," Mathematica Policy Research Reports 602dafe521fe4467854dcd45e, Mathematica Policy Research.
    4. Huber, Kilian, 2021. "Estimating General Equilibrium Spillovers of Large-Scale Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 15943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Karthik Muralidharan & Paul Niehaus & Sandip Sukhtankar, 2020. "Identity Verification Standards in Welfare Programs: Experimental Evidence from India," NBER Working Papers 26744, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Craig McIntosh & Andrew Zeitlin, 2020. "Using Household Grants to Benchmark the Cost Effectiveness of a USAID Workforce Readiness Program," Papers 2009.01749, arXiv.org.
    7. Auerbach, Alan J. & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Murphy, Daniel, 2021. "Inequality, fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    8. Adriana Lleras‐Muney, 2022. "Education and income gradients in longevity: The role of policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 5-37, February.
    9. Kochar, Anjini & Nagabhushana, Closepet & Sarkar, Ritwik & Shah, Rohan & Singh, Geeta, 2022. "Financial access and women's role in household decisions: Empirical evidence from India's National Rural Livelihoods project," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    10. Feyza G. Sahinyazan & Marie‐Ève Rancourt & Vedat Verter, 2021. "Food Aid Modality Selection Problem," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 30(4), pages 965-983, April.
    11. Olivier Sterck & Antonia Delius, 2020. "Cash Transfers and Micro-Enterprise Performance: Theory and Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Kenya," CSAE Working Paper Series 2020-09, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    12. Andersen, Asbjørn G. & Kotsadam, Andreas & Somville, Vincent, 2021. "Material resources and well-being — Evidence from an Ethiopian housing lottery," Discussion Paper Series in Economics 11/2021, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Economics.
    13. Davide Viviano & Jelena Bradic, 2020. "Fair Policy Targeting," Papers 2005.12395, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.
    14. Orazio Attanasio & Lina Cardona-Sosa & Carlos Medina & Costas Meghir & Christian Posso, 2021. "Long Term Effects of Cash Transfer Programs in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1170, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    15. Davide Viviano, 2020. "Policy design in experiments with unknown interference," Papers 2011.08174, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2022.
    16. de Milliano, Marlous & Barrington, Clare & Angeles, Gustavo & Gbedemah, Christiana, 2021. "Crowding-out or crowding-in? Effects of LEAP 1000 unconditional cash transfer program on household and community support among women in rural Ghana," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Matthew W. Ridley & Gautam Rao & Frank Schilbach & Vikram H. Patel, 2020. "Poverty, Depression, and Anxiety: Causal Evidence and Mechanisms," NBER Working Papers 27157, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Susanna B. Berkouwer & Pierre E. Biscaye & Steven L. Puller & Catherine Wolfram, 2021. "Disbursing Emergency Relief through Utilities: Evidence from Ghana," NBER Working Papers 28818, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Avitabile, Ciro, 2021. "Spillovers and Social Interaction Effects in the Demand for Preventive Healthcare: Evidence from the PROGRESA program," Journal of Health Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Y. R. Waarts & V. Janssen & R. Aryeetey & D. Onduru & D. Heriyanto & S. Tin Aprillya & A. N’Guessan & L. Courbois & D. Bakker & V. J. Ingram, 2021. "Multiple pathways towards achieving a living income for different types of smallholder tree-crop commodity farmers," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 13(6), pages 1467-1496, December.
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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