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Fiscal multipliers in the COVID19 recession

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  • Auerbach, Alan
  • Gorodnichenko, Yuriy
  • McCrory, Peter B
  • Murphy, Daniel

Abstract

In response to the record-breaking COVID19 recession, many governments have adopted unprecedented fiscal stimuli. While countercyclical fiscal policy is effective in fighting conventional recessions, little is known about the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the current environment with widespread shelter-in-place ("lockdown") policies and the associated considerable limits on economic activity. Using detailed regional variation in economic conditions, lockdown policies, and U.S. government spending, we document that the effects of government spending were stronger during the peak of the pandemic recession, but only in cities that were not subject to strong stay-at-home orders. We examine mechanisms that can account for our evidence and place our findings in the context of other recent evidence from microdata.

Suggested Citation

  • Auerbach, Alan & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & McCrory, Peter B & Murphy, Daniel, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in the COVID19 recession," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt83n8n7j1, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:econwp:qt83n8n7j1
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    Cited by:

    1. Daiji Kawaguchi & Sagiri Kitao & Manabu Nose, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on Japanese firms: mobility and resilience via remote work," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 29(6), pages 1419-1449, December.
    2. Zheng, Huanhuan, 2023. "Sovereign debt responses to the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Spiegel, Mark M., 2023. "Fiscal capacity and commercial bank lending under COVID-19," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. Yahong Zhang, 2022. "Unemployment Benefits and Wage Subsidies -- Effects of Labour Market Policies during a Pandemic," Working Papers 2203, University of Windsor, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2022.
    5. Brunhart, Andreas & Geiger, Martin, 2023. "Stützungsmassnahmen für die Wirtschaft in Liechtenstein während der Corona-Pandemie: Eine abschliessende Evaluation," EconStor Research Reports 273324, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Ghassibe, Mishel & Zanetti, Francesco, 2022. "State dependence of fiscal multipliers: the source of fluctuations matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-23.
    7. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan & Veronika Penciakova & Nick Sander, 2021. "Fiscal Policy in the Age of COVID: Does it ‘Get in all of the Cracks?’," NBER Working Papers 29293, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Mark M. Spiegel, 2022. "Fiscal Stimulus and Commercial Bank Lending Under COVID-19," Working Paper Series 2022-04, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    9. Evi Pappa & Andrey Ramos & Eugenia Vella, 2022. "Which crisis support fiscal measures worked during the COVID-19 shock in Europe?," DEOS Working Papers 2217, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    10. Goldfayn-Frank, Olga & Lewis, Vivien & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2022. "Spending effects of child-related fiscal transfers," Discussion Papers 26/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Clinical Research; Quality Education; COVID19; Fiscal multiplier; Stimulus; Applied Economics; Econometrics; Banking; Finance and Investment; Finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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