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Unemployment Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders: Evidence from High-Frequency Claims Data

Author

Listed:
  • ChaeWon Baek

    (Tufts University)

  • Peter B. McCrory

    (J.P. Morgan Chase)

  • Todd Messer

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Preston Mui

    (University of California, Berkeley)

Abstract

We use the high-frequency, decentralized implementation of stay-at-home (SAH) orders in the United States to disentangle the labor market effects of SAH orders from the general economic disruption wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic. We find that each week of SAH exposure increased a state's weekly initial unemployment insurance (UI) claims by 1.9% of its employment level relative to other states. A back-of-the-envelope calculation implies that of the 17 million UI claims between March 14 and April 4, only 4 million were attributable to SAH orders. We present a currency union model to provide conditions for mapping this estimate to aggregate employment losses.

Suggested Citation

  • ChaeWon Baek & Peter B. McCrory & Todd Messer & Preston Mui, 2021. "Unemployment Effects of Stay-at-Home Orders: Evidence from High-Frequency Claims Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 979-993, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:103:y:2021:i:5:p:979-993
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_00996
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