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The Economic Costs of Hybrid Wars: The Case of Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Julia Bluszcz
  • Marica Valente

Abstract

With more than ten thousand casualties, the ongoing hybrid Ukrainian war between pro-Russian separatists and the government in the Donbass region, Ukraine’s productive core, has taken a severe toll on the country. Using cross-country panel data over the period 1995–2017, this paper estimates the causal effects of the Donbass war on Ukraine’s GDP. Our counterfactual estimation by the synthetic control method shows that Ukraine’s per capita GDP foregone due to the war amounts to 15.1% on average for 2013–2017. Separate analysis for the affected regions of Donetsk and Luhansk indicates an average causal effect of 47% for 2013–2016. Results are robust to pre-war confounds, namely, the Orange Revolution and Ukrainian-Russian gas disputes. As such, we discuss mechanisms underlying the war’s causal effects on economic performance, which is of broader relevance for debates on the role of government in hybrid conflict management.

Suggested Citation

  • Julia Bluszcz & Marica Valente, 2022. "The Economic Costs of Hybrid Wars: The Case of Ukraine," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-25, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:33:y:2022:i:1:p:1-25
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2020.1791616
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    Cited by:

    1. Deininger, Klaus & Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Fang, Ming, 2025. "Impact of the Russian invasion on Ukrainian small and medium farmers’ productivity," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    2. Nuno Garoupa & Virginia Rosales & Rok Spruk, 2025. "Assaults on Judicial Independence under the Pretense of Modernization: Evidence from Venezuela," Papers 2511.10681, arXiv.org.
    3. Aleksandar Kešeljević & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Estimating the effects of Syrian civil war," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 671-703, February.
    4. Deininger, Klaus W. & Ali, Daniel Ayalew & Nataliia, Kussul & Lemoine, Guido & Shelestov, Andrii & Shumilo, Leonid, 2025. "Using Remotely Sensed Data to Assess War-Induced Damage to Agricultural Cultivation : Evidence from Ukraine," Policy Research Working Paper Series 11221, The World Bank.
    5. Daria Suprunenko, 2024. "Ukrainian export and production after the 2014 Russia shock," IEER Working Papers 124, Institute of Empirical Economic Research, Osnabrueck University.
    6. Mandon, Pierre Jean-Claude & Nossek, Vincent Remi & Sandjong Tomi, Diderot Guy D Estaing, 2023. "Stuck in a Conflict Trap : The Case of the Central African Republic Civil War," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10624, The World Bank.
    7. Klaus W. Deininger & Daniel Ayalew Ali & Kussul,Nataliia & Lemoine,Guido & Shelestov,Andrii, 2024. "Micro-Level Impacts of the War on Ukraine’s Agriculture Sector : Distinguishing Local and National Effects over Time," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10869, The World Bank.
    8. Blaž Frešer, 2022. "Multidimensional Model of High-Growth Companies: Do COVID-19 and the Ukraine–Russia Crisis Lead to Differences?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-25, November.
    9. David Audretsch & Paul P. Momtaz & Hanna Motuzenko & Silvio Vismara, 2023. "The Economic Costs of the Russia-Ukraine War: A Synthetic Control Study of (Lost) Entrepreneurship," Papers 2303.02773, arXiv.org.
    10. Joe Maganga Zonda & Chang-Ching Lin & Ming-Jen Chang, 2024. "On the economic costs of political instabilities: a tale of sub-Saharan Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 137-173, January.
    11. Haddoud, Mohamed Yacine & Nowinski, Witold & Onjewu, Adah-Kole Emmanuel & Souleh, Samah & Elbaz, Ahmed Mohamed, 2024. "Perceived Corruption, entrepreneurial exposure and entrepreneurial career Intention: Evidence from five emerging countries," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    12. David B. Audretsch & Paul P. Momtaz & Hanna Motuzenko & Silvio Vismara, 2023. "War and Entrepreneurship: A Synthetic Control Study of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict," CESifo Working Paper Series 10466, CESifo.
    13. Aleksandar Keseljevic & Stefan Nikolic & Rok Spruk, 2025. "Ethnic Conflicts, Civil War and Economic Growth: Region-Level Evidence from former Yugoslavia," Papers 2505.02431, arXiv.org.
    14. Riste Ichev & Rok Spruk, 2025. "From Revolution to Ruin: An Empirical Analysis Yemen's State Collapse," Papers 2507.08512, arXiv.org.
    15. Mingchao Sun, 2024. "Can the military be a better manager of the economy?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 71(4), pages 542-552, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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