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Stuck in a Conflict Trap : The Case of the Central African Republic Civil War

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  • Mandon,Pierre Jean-Claude
  • Nossek,Vincent Remi
  • Sandjong Tomi,Diderot Guy D Estaing

Abstract

This paper uses the synthetic control method to assess the impact of the civil war in the Central African Republic on the main socioeconomic indicators. Based on a donor pool of low-income countries, the paper builds a synthetic counterfactual to evaluate the magnitude of the socioeconomic impacts of the civil war. The results indicate that the civil war led to a significant drop in gross domestic product per capita (41.6 percent), nighttime light intensity (33.8 percent), industrial production (34.1 percent), manufacturing value added (33.7 percent), and the human asset index (20.2 percent), from 2013, which is considered as the starting point of the ongoing political and civil crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mandon,Pierre Jean-Claude & Nossek,Vincent Remi & Sandjong Tomi,Diderot Guy D Estaing, 2023. "Stuck in a Conflict Trap : The Case of the Central African Republic Civil War," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10624, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10624
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