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The impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian economy

Author

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  • Matta,Samer Naji
  • Appleton,Simon Mark
  • Bleaney,Michael Francis

Abstract

This paper uses Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the"Arab Spring."The results suggest that the loss was 5.5 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.4 percent of GDP in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. These findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests, and are consistent with those from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of Tunisia's economic growth. Moreover, thispaper finds that investment was the main channel through which the economy was adversely impacted by the Arab Spring.

Suggested Citation

  • Matta,Samer Naji & Appleton,Simon Mark & Bleaney,Michael Francis, 2016. "The impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian economy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7856, The World Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:7856
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    Cited by:

    1. Cruz A. Echevarría & Javier García-Enríquez, 2020. "The economic cost of the Arab Spring: the case of the Egyptian revolution," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(3), pages 1453-1477, September.
    2. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Gholipour, Hassan F., 2023. "COVID-19 fatalities and internal conflict: Does government economic support matter?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Tendai Gwatidzo, 2025. "Analysing the impact of climate change on economic growth in the SADC region a synthetic control approach," Working Papers 11091, South African Reserve Bank.
    4. A. Sahraoui & N.K. Tran & Y. Tliche & A. Kacem & A. Taghipour, 2023. "Examining ICT Innovation for Sustainable Terminal Operations in Developing Countries: A Case Study of the Port of Radès in Tunisia," Post-Print hal-04435475, HAL.
    5. Samer Matta & Michael Bleaney & Simon Appleton, 2022. "The economic impact of political instability and mass civil protest," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 253-270, March.
    6. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2019. "The Opportunity Cost of the Islamic Revolution and War for Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201929, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    7. Nizar Becheikh, 2021. "Political stability and economic growth in developing economies: lessons from Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt ten years after the Arab Spring," Post-Print hal-03583934, HAL.
    8. Rudolf, Robert & Wang, Shun & Wu, Fengyu, 2023. "The Arab Spring, a setback for gender equality? Evidence from the Gallup World Poll," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    9. Phoebe W. Ishak & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2022. "Oil price shocks, protest, and the shadow economy: Is there a mitigation effect?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 298-321, July.
    10. Markus Loewe & Holger Albrecht, 2023. "The social contract in Egypt, Lebanon and Tunisia: What do the people want?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(5), pages 838-855, July.
    11. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan & Reza Zamani, 2024. "The Effect of Corruption on Internal Conflict in Iran Using Newspaper Coverage," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 24-43, January.
    12. Nabi, Mahmoud Sami, 2021. "Tunisia after the 2011’s revolution: Economic deterioration should, and could have been avoided," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 1094-1109.
    13. Idriss Fontaine & Justinien Razafindravaosolonirina, 2023. "The income loss of a political crisis: Evidence from Madagascar," Economics of Transition and Institutional Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(3), pages 657-681, July.
    14. Samer Matta, 2017. "The Microeconomic Impact of Political Instability: Firm-Level Evidence from Tunisia," Working Papers 1135, Economic Research Forum, revised 09 Jul 2017.
    15. Ahmed Sahraoui & Nguyen Khoi Tran & Youssef Tliche & Ameni Kacem & Atour Taghipour, 2023. "Examining ICT Innovation for Sustainable Terminal Operations in Developing Countries: A Case Study of the Port of Radès in Tunisia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-22, June.
    16. Mohamed Mehdi Jelassi & Ezzeddine Delhoumi, 2021. "What explains the technical efficiency of banks in Tunisia? Evidence from a two-stage data envelopment analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-26, December.
    17. Fatih Kırsanli, 2023. "Crony Capitalism and Corruption in the Middle East and North Africa," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 68(68), pages 9-19, December.
    18. Chandan Kumar Jha & Fatih Kırşanlı, 2024. "Arab Spring, democratization of corruption, and income inequality," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 3678-3691, July.
    19. Joseph Mawejje & Patrick McSharry, 2021. "The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1969-1990, November.
    20. Tillman Hönig, 2019. "The Impact of Peace: Evidence from Nigeria," HiCN Working Papers 293, Households in Conflict Network.
    21. Samuel Verevis & Murat Üngör, 2021. "What has New Zealand gained from The FTA with China?: Two counterfactual analyses†," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(1), pages 20-50, February.
    22. Nizar Becheikh, 2021. "Political stability and economic growth in developing economies: lessons from Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt ten years after the Arab Spring," Insights into Regional Development, VsI Entrepreneurship and Sustainability Center, vol. 3(2), pages 229-251, June.
    23. Mandon, Pierre Jean-Claude & Nossek, Vincent Remi & Sandjong Tomi, Diderot Guy D Estaing, 2023. "Stuck in a Conflict Trap : The Case of the Central African Republic Civil War," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10624, The World Bank.
    24. Rahmouni, Mohieddine, 2023. "Corruption and corporate innovation in Tunisia during an economic downturn," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 314-326.

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