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Thirty Years of Conflict and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Synthetic Control Approach

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  • Firat Bilgel
  • Burhan Can Karahasan

Abstract

This study seeks to estimate the causal effects of PKK separatist terrorism on economic development in Turkey using the synthetic control method. By creating a synthetic control group that reproduces the Turkish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) before PKK terrorism emerged in the late 1980s, we compare the GDP of the synthetic Turkey and the actual for the period 1955–2008. Our study finds that the Turkish per capita GDP would have been higher by about $2600 had it not been exposed to terrorism. This translates into an average of 21.4% higher per capita GDP over a period of 21 years.

Suggested Citation

  • Firat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2019. "Thirty Years of Conflict and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Synthetic Control Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 609-631, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:30:y:2019:i:5:p:609-631
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2017.1389582
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    Cited by:

    1. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Zilic, Ivan, 2020. "The economic effects of political disintegration: Lessons from Serbia and Montenegro," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Tahar Lassoued & Arafet Hamida & Zouhaier Hadhek, 2018. "Terrorism and Economic Growth," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 8(1), pages 175-178.
    3. repec:osf:osfxxx:s8ayp_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Anderson, Guy & Luiz, John M., 2025. "The development of emerging market defence enterprises: late industrialisation, catching-up, and the challenge of moving beyond linking and leveraging11We thank the editor Prof Keun Lee and anonymous ," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(8).
    5. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    6. López-Cazar, Ibeth & Papyrakis, Elissaios & Pellegrini, Lorenzo, 2021. "The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and corruption in Latin America: Evidence from Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Leonardo Biazoli & Bruna Paula Fonseca & Mine Çetinkaya-Rundel & Eric Araújo & Izabela Regina Cardoso Oliveira, 2025. "International mobility boosts scientific careers: a synthetic control analysis of Brazilian researchers," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 130(5), pages 3029-3051, May.
    8. Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2025. "Revolutions as structural breaks: the long-term economic and institutional consequences of the 1979 Iranian Revolution," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 273-301, September.
    9. Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2019. "The Opportunity Cost of the Islamic Revolution and War for Iran," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201929, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    10. Ramazan ErdaÄŸ, 2021. "Security Environment and Military Spending of Turkey in the 2000s," Contemporary Review of the Middle East, , vol. 8(1), pages 120-139, March.
    11. Muhammad Athar Nadeem & Zhiying Liu & Yi Xu & Kishwar Nawaz & Muhammad Yousaf Malik & Amna Younis, 2020. "Impacts of terrorism, governance structure, military expenditures and infrastructures upon tourism: empirical evidence from an emerging economy," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 10(1), pages 185-206, March.
    12. Aleksandar Kešeljević & Rok Spruk, 2024. "Estimating the effects of Syrian civil war," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 671-703, February.
    13. Aleksandar Keseljevic & Stefan Nikolic & Rok Spruk, 2025. "Ethnic Conflicts, Civil War and Economic Growth: Region-Level Evidence from former Yugoslavia," Papers 2505.02431, arXiv.org.
    14. Riste Ichev & Rok Spruk, 2025. "From Revolution to Ruin: An Empirical Analysis Yemen's State Collapse," Papers 2507.08512, arXiv.org.
    15. Yilmaz Bayar & Marius Dan Gavriletea, 2018. "Peace, terrorism and economic growth in Middle East and North African countries," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 52(5), pages 2373-2392, September.
    16. William McGuire & Ellen Alexandra Holtmaat & Aseem Prakash, 2022. "Penalties for industrial accidents: The impact of the Deepwater Horizon accident on BP’s reputation and stock market returns," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(6), pages 1-20, June.
    17. Rodríguez-Puello, Gabriel, 2024. "Digging for Trouble? Uncovering the Link Between Mining Booms and Crime," OSF Preprints s8ayp, Center for Open Science.
    18. Jaeho Jung & Kisu Kwon, 2025. "Policy or Circumstances? A Synthetic Control Method for Evaluating Brazil’s Economic Boom Under Lula," Economies, MDPI, vol. 13(7), pages 1-17, July.
    19. Mandon, Pierre Jean-Claude & Nossek, Vincent Remi & Sandjong Tomi, Diderot Guy D Estaing, 2023. "Stuck in a Conflict Trap : The Case of the Central African Republic Civil War," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10624, The World Bank.
    20. Guire, William M.C. & Holtmaat, Ellen Alexandra & Prakash, Aseem, 2022. "Penalties for industrial accidents: the impact of the Deepwater Horizon accident on BP’s reputation and stock market returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115560, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    21. Yonatan Dinku & Dereje Regasa, 2021. "Ethnic Diversity and Local Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(3), pages 348-367, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • P59 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Other

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