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The Impact of the War on Human Capital and Productivity in Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Balázs Égert
  • Christine de la Maisonneuve
  • Balazs Egert

Abstract

In addition to the humanitarian suffering and huge immediate economic costs, the war in Ukraine will have long-term consequences, among which are losses in human capital that will impact aggregate productivity for many years. Exploiting a new stock measure of human capital combining the quality and quantity of education and adult skills, this paper suggests that losses in long-run aggregate productivity operating through the human capital channel could be at about 7% if the war lasts two years. These adverse effects come from school closure and the resulting decline in student learning outcomes and losses in workers’ skills, which, without remedial policy action, could persist for decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Égert & Christine de la Maisonneuve & Balazs Egert, 2023. "The Impact of the War on Human Capital and Productivity in Ukraine," CESifo Working Paper Series 10513, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_10513
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Balázs Égert, 2016. "Regulation, Institutions, and Productivity: New Macroeconomic Evidence from OECD Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 109-113, May.
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    3. Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2017. "Differences in skill loss during unemployment across industries and occupations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 31-33.
    4. Balazs Egert & Christine de la Maisonneuve & David Turner, 2022. "A New Macroeconomic Measure of Human Capital Exploiting PISA and PIAAC: Linking Education Policies to Productivity," CESifo Working Paper Series 9728, CESifo.
    5. Hendrik Jürges & Luca Stella & Sameh Hallaq & Alexandra Schwarz, 2022. "Cohort at risk: long-term consequences of conflict for child school achievement," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(1), pages 1-43, January.
    6. Joana Monteiro & Rudi Rocha, 2017. "Drug Battles and School Achievement: Evidence from Rio de Janeiro's Favelas," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 213-228, May.
    7. Tilman Brück & Michele Di Maio & Sami H Miaari, 2019. "Learning The Hard Way: The Effect of Violent Conflict on Student Academic Achievement," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(5), pages 1502-1537.
    8. Jarillo, Brenda & Magaloni, Beatriz & Franco, Edgar & Robles, Gustavo, 2016. "How the Mexican drug war affects kids and schools? Evidence on effects and mechanisms," International Journal of Educational Development, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 135-146.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    human capital; productivity; educational achievement; student test score; adult test score; Ukraine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I19 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Other
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • I25 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Education and Economic Development
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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