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The Human Capital Peace Dividend

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  • Mounu Prem
  • Juan F. Vargas
  • Olga Namen

Abstract

While the literature has documented negative effects of conflict on educational outcomes, there is little evidence on the effect of conflict termination. We show how the permanent ceasefire declared by FARC’s insurgency during peace negotiations with the Colombian government caused a differential improvement on several educational outcomes in the areas affected by FARC violence prior to the ceasefire. These effects are not explained by peace building and post-war recovery investments, and they are only partially driven by wartime child soldiering. Instead, we find support for other mechanisms, such as the post-ceasefire plummeting of victimization and new economic opportunities in treated areas.

Suggested Citation

  • Mounu Prem & Juan F. Vargas & Olga Namen, 2023. "The Human Capital Peace Dividend," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 58(3), pages 962-1002.
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:58:y:2023:i:3:p:962-1002
    Note: DOI: https://doi.org/10.3368/jhr.59.1.0320-10805R2
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    File URL: http://jhr.uwpress.org/cgi/reprint/58/3/962
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bloem, Michael D. & Villero, Jesús, 2024. "College opportunity and teen fertility: Evidence from Ser Pilo Paga in Colombia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    2. Bernal, Carolina & Prem, Mounu & Vargas, Juan F. & Ortiz, Mónica, 2024. "Peaceful entry: Entrepreneurship dynamics during Colombia’s peace agreement," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    3. M Prem & M. E. Guerra & P Rodr�guez & J. F. Vargas, 2020. "The Peace Baby Boom: Evidence from Colombia’s peace agreement with the FARC," Documentos de Trabajo 18430, Universidad del Rosario.
    4. Gautier, Thomas, 2025. "From missing brothers to educated sisters: The effects of victimization during the Rwandan genocide," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 318207, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    5. Nicol√°s de Roux & Luis MartÔøΩnez, 2021. "Inversi√≥n Perdida: Conflicto Civil y Cr√©dito Agr√≠cola en Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19622, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    6. Emiliano Tealde, 2025. "Where You Live Matters: Drug Trade-Related Violence and Discrimination in the Labor Market," Documentos CEDE 2025-40, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    7. Mora-García, Claudio A. & Prem, Mounu & Rodríguez-Lesmes, Paul & Vargas, Juan F., 2025. "Health workforce reallocation in the aftermath of conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Bharati, Tushar, 2022. "The long shadow of the Kargil War: The effect of early-life stress on education," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    9. Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2025. "Landmines: The local effects of demining," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    10. Nicol√°s de Roux & Luis Roberto MartÔøΩnez, 2021. "Forgone Investment: Civil Conflict and Agricultural Credit in Colombia," Documentos CEDE 19236, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    11. Perilla, Sergio & Prem, Mounu & Purroy, Miguel E. & Vargas, Juan F., 2024. "How peace saves lives: Evidence from Colombia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    12. Hernando Grueso, 2024. "Heterogeneous effects of violence on student achievement: Evidence from Colombia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(2), pages 1536-1569, March.
    13. Albarrán, Pedro & Robles, Antonio & Sanz-de-Galdeano, Anna, 2025. "The Aftermath of Peace: The Impact of the FARC’s Ceasefire on Forced Displacement in Colombia," IZA Discussion Papers 18087, IZA Network @ LISER.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • I21 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Analysis of Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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