Using satellite imagery and a farmer registry to assess agricultural support in conflict settings: The case of the producer support grant program in Ukraine

Individuals affected by conflict are often in particular need of support, yet allocating such support transparently, delivering it effectively in an unsafe environment, and assessing its impact pose challenges. This paper uses the case of a US$ 50 million cash grant program for small farmers in Ukraine to show how, after the Russian invasion in 2022, these challenges were addressed by (i) establishing a digital farmer registry and transferring support directly into beneficiaries’ bank account; (ii) tying support to registered land ownership and use; and (iii) using remotely sensed information to assess if beneficiaries’ registered land was used productively. We describe program design and implementation and apply a difference-in-differences design to a 2019–23 panel of all fields (as identified by cadastral boundaries) used by close to 50,000 registered farmers to assess impact on area cultivated as assessed from remotely sensed imagery. The program is found to have significantly increased the total area cultivated with modestly sized impacts that were most pronounced near the frontline and for the smallest farmers. The evidence presented suggests that, even in conflict-affected low-capacity environments, digital means allow support to affected populations to be transparently and effectively delivered and monitored. Implications for digital farm registries beyond Ukraine are discussed.