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Can agricultural and precious metal commodities diversify and hedge extreme downside and upside oil market risk? An extreme quantile approach

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Areola Hernandez

    (ESC [Rennes] - ESC Rennes School of Business)

  • Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    (Groupe Sup de Co Montpellier (GSCM) - Montpellier Business School)

  • Gazi Salah Uddin

    (LIU - Linköping University)

  • Sang Hoon Kang

    (PNU - Pusan National University, University of South Australia [Adelaide])

Abstract

The cost-effectiveness measures for production, processing, and transportation adopted by wheat, rice, and corn farmers, as well as the price fluctuations of gold and silver, doubtlessly depend on the downside and upside price trends of global economic factors such as the oil market. This dependence between oil and agricultural commodities motivates an analysis of interdependence and spillover influence in extreme oil market scenarios. By means of an extreme quantile approach, this study models the return distribution of oil in relation to some of the most traded agricultural and precious metal commodities. We find that extreme lower quantiles of oil returns have a positive effect on the lower quantiles of gold, silver, and rice returns. These effects are more significant using daily-frequency data, while for weekly and monthly frequencies, the effect is less significant. The decrease in oil returns during a bearish oil market will cause a decrease in precious metal and rice returns; therefore, these cannot be used to hedge the downside risk of oil investments, especially in the short term. These commodities might only serve as a diversification strategy for oil investments. The lower quantiles of oil returns have either no effect, or a negative effect, on the lower quantiles of wheat and corn, making them suitable hedges for extreme downturns in oil prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Areola Hernandez & Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad & Gazi Salah Uddin & Sang Hoon Kang, 2019. "Can agricultural and precious metal commodities diversify and hedge extreme downside and upside oil market risk? An extreme quantile approach," Post-Print hal-02159274, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02159274
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2018.11.007
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    2. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Oil and gold as a hedge and safe-haven for metals and agricultural commodities with portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    3. Mastroeni, Loretta & Mazzoccoli, Alessandro & Quaresima, Greta & Vellucci, Pierluigi, 2022. "Wavelet analysis and energy-based measures for oil-food price relationship as a footprint of financialisation effect," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Hanif, Waqas & Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & BenSaïda, Ahmed & Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2023. "Dependence and risk management of portfolios of metals and agricultural commodity futures," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    5. Clement Moyo & Izunna Anyikwa & Andrew Phiri, 2023. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Oil Market Returns: Has Market Efficiency Being Violated?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 13(1), pages 118-127, January.
    6. Wen, Jun & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "The impact of extreme events on energy price risk," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    7. Hanif, Waqas & Areola Hernandez, Jose & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2021. "Tail dependence risk and spillovers between oil and food prices," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 195-209.
    8. Rubbaniy, Ghulame & Khalid, Ali Awais & Syriopoulos, Konstantinos & Samitas, Aristeidis, 2022. "Safe-haven properties of soft commodities during times of Covid-19," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    9. Sa Xu & Ziqing Du & Hai Zhang, 2020. "Can Crude Oil Serve as a Hedging Asset for Underlying Securities?—Research on the Heterogenous Correlation between Crude Oil and Stock Index," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-19, June.
    10. Muhammad Abubakr Naeem & Sitara Karim & Tooraj Jamasb & Rabindra Nepal, 2022. "Risk transmission between green markets and commodities," CAMA Working Papers 2022-18, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    11. Shah, Adil Ahmad & Dar, Arif Billah, 2021. "Exploring diversification opportunities across commodities and financial markets: Evidence from time-frequency based spillovers," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Lawal, Adedoyin, 2021. "Hedging oil price risk with gold during COVID-19 pandemic," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    13. Zhang, Tianding & Zeng, Song, 2023. "Dynamic comovement and extreme risk spillovers between international crude oil and China's non-ferrous metal futures market," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    14. Liya Hau & Huiming Zhu & Muhammad Shahbaz & Ke Huang, 2023. "Quantile Dependence between Crude Oil and China’s Biofuel Feedstock Commodity Market," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-17, June.
    15. Dejan Živkov & Petra Balaban & Boris Kuzman, 2021. "How to combine precious metals with corn in a risk-minimizing two-asset portfolio?," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 67(2), pages 60-69.
    16. Huilian Huang & Tao Xiong, 2023. "A good hedge or safe haven? The hedging ability of China's commodity futures market under extreme market conditions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(7), pages 968-1035, July.
    17. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha & Nepal, Rabindra & Ngo, Quang-Thanh & Taghizadeh–Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "Asymmetric relationship between green bonds and commodities: Evidence from extreme quantile approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    18. Huang, Jie & Cao, Yu & Zhong, Pengshu, 2022. "Searching for a safe haven to crude oil: Green bond or precious metals?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    19. Mensi, Walid & Nekhili, Ramzi & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Oil and precious metals: Volatility transmission, hedging, and safe haven analysis from the Asian crisis to the COVID-19 crisis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 73-96.
    20. Chang, Chiu-Lan & Fang, Ming, 2022. "The connectedness between natural resource commodities and stock market indices: Evidence from the Chinese economy," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    21. Shahzad, Farrukh & Bouri, Elie & Mokni, Khaled & Ajmi, Ahdi Noomen, 2021. "Energy, agriculture, and precious metals: Evidence from time-varying Granger causal relationships for both return and volatility," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    22. Hau, Liya & Zhu, Huiming & Huang, Rui & Ma, Xiang, 2020. "Heterogeneous dependence between crude oil price volatility and China’s agriculture commodity futures: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
    23. Adeleke, Musefiu A. & Awodumi, Olabanji B. & Adewuyi, Adeolu O., 2022. "Return and volatility connectedness among commodity markets during major crises periods: Static and dynamic analyses with asymmetries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    24. Loretta Mastroeni & Alessandro Mazzoccoli & Greta Quaresima & Pierluigi Vellucci, 2021. "Wavelet analysis and energy-based measures for oil-food price relationship as a footprint of financialisation effect," Papers 2104.11891, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2022.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Predictability; Energy market oil prices; Agricultural commodities; Precious metals; Extreme quantile dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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