The impact of violent political conflict on commodity prices: The Israeli food market
The impact of violent conflict on the state of the economy has been studied extensively since the two recent decades. In most studies the state of the economy is operationalized by stock market indices of the respective countries. In this paper we suggest investigating the impact of violent conflict on the lives of civilians by looking also at food prices. We gathered a unique dataset of daily frequency for this purpose which offers a number of variables quantifying relevant events which occurred between 1997 and 2011 in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. We model domestic Israeli prices of several fresh fruits and vegetables using a GARCH framework and control for the state of the economy, exchange rate effects, international prices, seasonal variation and Muslim holidays. Intensity of the conflict is measured by the incidences of movement restrictions which are implemented due to security reasons and temporarily cut off the otherwise dynamic agricultural trade between Israel and the Palestinian Territories, and daily casualty numbers for both sides of the conflict. Our analysis yields plausible results for the comprehensive impact of the controls as well as of the conflict variables. We find that comprehensive closures imposed on the Palestinian Territories do not show much impact on food price dynamics in Israel. Conversely, while days with many Israeli casualties raise both the mean and the volatility of several prices, the opposite effect is observed in the case of high numbers of fatalities on the Palestinian side.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (414) 918-3190
Fax: (414) 276-3349
Web page: http://www.aaea.org
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Alberto Abadie & Javier Gardeazabal, 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 113-132, March.
- Paul de Boer & Marco Missaglia, 2006.
"Economic consequences of intifada,"
Economic Systems Research,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 97-106.
- Caplan, B., 2002. "How does war shock the economy?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 145-162, April.
- Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2005.
"The economic effects of violent conflict: evidence from asset market reactions,"
2005-066, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Massimo Guidolin & Eliana La Ferrara, 2010. "The economic effects of violent conflict: Evidence from asset market reactions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(6), pages 671-684, November.
- Ihle, Rico & Rubin, Ofir D., 2012. "Price Transmission Subject to Security‐based Trade Barriers in the Context of the Israeli‐Palestinian Conflict," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
EERI Research Paper Series
EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Apostolos Stagiannis, 2010. "Armed Conflicts And Capital Markets: The Case Of The Israeli Military Offensive In The Gaza Strip," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 357-365.
- Amihud, Yakov & Wohl, Avi, 2004. "Political news and stock prices: The case of Saddam Hussein contracts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 1185-1200, May.
- Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Chesney, Marc & Reshetar, Ganna & Karaman, Mustafa, 2011. "The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 253-267, February.
- Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman, 2006. "Assassinations: Evaluating the Effectiveness of an Israeli Counterterrorism Policy Using Stock Market Data," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 193-206, Spring.
- David Fielding, 2003. "Modelling Political Instability and Economic Performance: Israeli Investment during the "Intifada"," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 70(277), pages 159-186, February.
- Teräsvirta, Timo, 2006. "An introduction to univariate GARCH models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 646, Stockholm School of Economics.
- William A. Masters & Gerald E. Shively, 2008. "Introduction to the special issue on the world food crisis," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 39(s1), pages 373-374, November.
- Arin, K. Peren & Ciferri, Davide & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2008. "The price of terror: The effects of terrorism on stock market returns and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 164-167, December.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-47, August.
- Eldor, Rafi & Melnick, Rafi, 2004. "Financial markets and terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 367-386, June.
- William R. DiPietro & Emmanuel Anoruo & Bansi Sawhney, 2008. "The Effect of the Size of the Military on Stock Market Performance in the United States and the UK," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(1), pages 33-44, 02.
- Kollias, Christos & Papadamou, Stephanos & Stagiannis, Apostolos, 2011. "Terrorism and capital markets: The effects of the Madrid and London bomb attacks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 532-541, October.
- Asaf Zussman & Noam Zussman & Morten Orregaard Nielsen, 2008. "Asset Market Perspectives on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 84-115, 02.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aaea13:150961. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.