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Economic consequences of intifada

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  • Paul de Boer
  • Marco Missaglia

Abstract

In 2003 the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) published estimates of macro-economic indicators for 2002 of the economy of Palestine. The WB used a micro-founded recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, calibrated on the 1998 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of Palestine, to which shocks were applied, whereas the IMF based its estimates on a macro-founded income-expenditure model relying on more recent data. It turned out that there were substantial differences: the estimate by the WB of the real gross national income (at 1998 prices) was 25% less than the corresponding figure calculated by the IMF. This huge difference is not only relevant for a full understanding of the economic consequences of the intifada, but also for the size of the international community intervention. In this paper we propose our own evaluation with the help of a static CGE model, based on the 1998 SAM and the so-called intifada shock derived from data of the WB that we constructed for the analysis of some forms of emergency assistance in a previous article. It turns out that our estimates, based on an entirely different methodology, are remarkably close to those of the IMF.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul de Boer & Marco Missaglia, 2006. "Economic consequences of intifada," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 97-106.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:ecsysr:v:18:y:2006:i:1:p:97-106 DOI: 10.1080/09535310500440779
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marco Missaglia & Paul de Boer, 2004. "Food-For-Work versus Cash-For-Work: Emergency Assistance in Palestine," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(4), pages 367-390.
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    Cited by:

    1. de Boer, P.M.C., 2008. "Lack of peaceful resolution with Israel: economic cost for Palestinians," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-23, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. Michela Sironi & Federico Perali & Maikol Furlani & Alexandrina Ioana Scorbureanu, 2012. "A feasibility analysis of the Jenin Sustainable Industrial and Logistic District," Working Papers 36/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    3. De Palma André & Perali Federico & Ricciuti Roberto & Scorbureanu Alexandrina & Picard Nathalie, 2013. "Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 103-122, August.
    4. de Boer, P.M.C. & Missaglia, M., 2005. "Introducing the indirect addilog system in a computable general equilibrium model: a case study for Palestine," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    5. de Boer, P.M.C., 2009. "Modeling household behavior in a CGE model: linear expenditure system or indirect addilog?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. de Boer, P.M.C. & Missaglia, M., 2007. "Economic consequences of intifada: a sequel," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-39, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    7. Paul de Boer, 2010. "Modeling Household Behavior in a CGE Model: Linear Expenditure System or Indirect Addilog?," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_059, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
    8. Rubin, Ofir D. & Ihle, Rico & Kachel, Yael & Goodwin, Barry K., 2013. "The impact of violent political conflict on commodity prices: The Israeli food market," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150961, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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