IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict

  • André De Palma

    ()

    (Département d'Économie et de Gestion, École Normale Supérieure Cachan)

  • Federico Perali

    ()

    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

  • Nathalie Picard

    ()

    (Théorie Économique, Modélisation, Application (THEMA), Université de Cergy-Pontoise)

  • Roberto Ricciuti

    ()

    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

  • Alexandrina Ioana Scorbureanu

    ()

    (Department of Economics (University of Verona))

This study presents a novel approach to crisis prevention based on data on premonitory political and religious events and the international media coverage of publicly sensitive circumstances. We implement our method to the Israel-Palestine conflict. First we identify two main political scenarios associated with “good” and “bad” political times of low or high levels of political unrest using a hierarchical clustering technique. Then we construct a political alert index to predict the probability of occurrence of good and bad times. Bad times are positively and significantly associated with the number of Israeli victims at the checkpoints, the number of homeless or injured Palestinians and with the number of demolitions. The number of Palestinian prisoners and injured Israelis negatively affect the probability of occurrence of a bad time. Media coverage is positively and significantly associated with the transition to bad times. Our results show that our statistical tool can be a reliable method for early warning of social crisis and can be effectively replicated to other social crisis situations.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://dse.univr.it/home/workingpapers/politicalalert.pdf
File Function: First version
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Verona, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 08/2013.

as
in new window

Length: 0
Date of creation: May 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:08/2013
Contact details of provider: Postal: Vicolo Campofiore, 2 - I-37129 Verona
Phone: +390458028097
Fax: +390458028486
Web page: http://www.dse.univr.it
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Koch Michael & Tkach Benjamin, 2012. "Deterring or Mobilizing? The Influence of Government Partisanship and Force on the Frequency, Lethality and Suicide Attacks of Terror Events," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, August.
  2. Sayre Edward A, 2009. "Labor Market Conditions, Political Events, and Palestinian Suicide Bombings," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28, May.
  3. Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ver:wpaper:08/2013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael Reiter)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.