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On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events

Author

Listed:
  • Aaron Clauset

    (Santa Fe Institute, New Mexico and Department of Computer Science, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque)

  • Maxwell Young

    (Department of Computer Science, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque)

  • Kristian Skrede Gleditsch

    (Department of Government, University of Essex, United Kingdom and Centre for the Study of Civil War, Oslo, Norway)

Abstract

In the spirit of Lewis Richardson’s original study of the statistics of deadly conflicts, we study the frequency and severity of terrorist attacks worldwide since 1968. We show that these events are uniformly characterized by the phenomenon of “scale invariance,†that is, the frequency scales as an inverse power of the severity, P(x) Αx -α . We find that this property is a robust feature of terrorism, persisting when we control for economic development of the target country, the type of weapon used, and even for short time scales. Further, we show that the center of the distribution oscillates slightly with a period of roughly τ≈ 13 years, that there exist significant temporal correlations in the frequency of severe events, and that current models of event incidence cannot account for these variations or the scale invariance property of global terrorism. Finally, we describe a simple toy model for the generation of these statistics and briefly discuss its implications.

Suggested Citation

  • Aaron Clauset & Maxwell Young & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2007. "On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 58-87, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:51:y:2007:i:1:p:58-87
    DOI: 10.1177/0022002706296157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Halvarsson, Daniel, 2013. "Industry Differences in the Firm Size Distribution," Ratio Working Papers 214, The Ratio Institute.
    4. Rafael González-Val, 2016. "War Size Distribution: Empirical Regularities Behind Conflicts," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(6), pages 838-853, November.
    5. Halvarsson, Daniel, 2013. "Identifying High-Growth Firms," Ratio Working Papers 215, The Ratio Institute.
    6. Miranda Luiz C.M. & Perondi Leonel F. & Gleditsch Kristian Skrede, 2016. "The Evolution of Civil War Severity, 1816–2005," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 22(3), pages 247-276, August.
    7. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Sara M. T. Polo, 2016. "Ethnic inclusion, democracy, and terrorism," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 207-229, December.
    8. De Palma André & Perali Federico & Picard Nathalie & Ricciuti Roberto & Scorbureanu Alexandrina, 2013. "Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 103-122, August.
    9. Nicos Christodoulakis, 2016. "Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 688-717, September.
    10. Saperstein Alvin M., 2010. "A Comment on the Power Law Relation Between Frequency and Severity of Terrorist Attacks," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-6, September.
    11. Marcovina Marco & Pellero Bruno, 2015. "A Mathematical Analysis of Domestic Terrorist Activity in the Years of Lead in Italy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 351-389, August.
    12. Sunghoon Hong & Myrna Wooders, 2010. "Strategic Network Interdiction," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 1010, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
    13. Montebruno, Piero & Bennett, Robert J. & van Lieshout, Carry & Smith, Harry, 2019. "A tale of two tails: Do Power Law and Lognormal models fit firm-size distributions in the mid-Victorian era?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 523(C), pages 858-875.

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