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Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949

Author

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  • Nicos Christodoulakis

Abstract

Using a new set of data from Greek Army sources, US military archives, and Communist Party documents, the paper provides a quantitative analysis of the armed confrontation that took place in Greece during 1946–1949. A dynamic Lotka–Volterra model is estimated, pointing to the existence of a conflict trap that explains the prolongation of the civil war and its dire consequences for the country. A regional analysis finds that the mobilization of guerrilla forces was crucially affected by morphology and the local persecutions of political rivals. Using neoclassical growth-accounting, the economic cost of the conflict is estimated to surpass an annual GDP, in line with similar findings in contemporary civil wars. The same framework is employed to assess the outcome in counterfactual situations discussed in this paper.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicos Christodoulakis, 2016. "Conflict dynamics and costs in the Greek Civil War 1946–1949," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 688-717, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:27:y:2016:i:5:p:688-717
    DOI: 10.1080/10242694.2014.1000010
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    Cited by:

    1. Harry A Patrinos, 2022. "Returns to Education in Greece: Evidence from the 1977 Labor Market Survey using the Greek Civil War as an Instrument," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(1), pages 288-293.
    2. Dingxuan Huang & Claudio O. Delang & Yongjiao Wu & Shuliang Li, 2022. "Correction: Huang et al. An Improved Lotka–Volterra Model Using Quantum Game Theory. Mathematics 2021, 9 , 2217," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-2, May.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C62 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Existence and Stability Conditions of Equilibrium
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • N44 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation - - - Europe: 1913-
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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