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Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • André De Palma

    (Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan)

  • Federico Perali

    (University of Verona and CHILD)

  • Nathalie Picard

    (Universite de Cergy-Pontoise)

  • Roberto Ricciuti

    (University of Verona and CESifo)

  • Alexandrina Scorbureanu

    (University of Verona)

Abstract

This study presents a novel approach to crisis prevention based on data on premonitory political and religious events and the international media coverage of publicly sensitive circumstances. We implement our method to the Israel-Palestine conflict. First we identify two main political scenarios associated with "good" and "bad" political times of low or high levels of political unrest using a hierarchical clustering technique. Then we construct a political alert index to predict the probability of occurrence of good and bad times. Bad times are positively and significantly associated with the number of Israeli victims at the checkpoints, the number of homeless or injured Palestinians and with the number of demolitions. The number of Palestinian prisoners and injured Israelis negatively affect the probability of occurrence of a bad time. Media coverage is positively and significantly associated with the transition to bad times. Our results show that our statistical tool can be a reliable method for early warning of social crisis and can be effectively replicated to other social crisis situations.

Suggested Citation

  • André De Palma & Federico Perali & Nathalie Picard & Roberto Ricciuti & Alexandrina Scorbureanu, 2013. "Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict," THEMA Working Papers 2013-26, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
    • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2013-26
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crisis prevention; alert index; news; Israel; Palestine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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