IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ema/worpap/2013-26.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • André De Palma

    () (Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan)

  • Federico Perali

    () (University of Verona and CHILD)

  • Nathalie Picard

    () (Universite de Cergy-Pontoise)

  • Roberto Ricciuti

    (University of Verona and CESifo)

  • Alexandrina Scorbureanu

    (University of Verona)

Abstract

This study presents a novel approach to crisis prevention based on data on premonitory political and religious events and the international media coverage of publicly sensitive circumstances. We implement our method to the Israel-Palestine conflict. First we identify two main political scenarios associated with "good" and "bad" political times of low or high levels of political unrest using a hierarchical clustering technique. Then we construct a political alert index to predict the probability of occurrence of good and bad times. Bad times are positively and significantly associated with the number of Israeli victims at the checkpoints, the number of homeless or injured Palestinians and with the number of demolitions. The number of Palestinian prisoners and injured Israelis negatively affect the probability of occurrence of a bad time. Media coverage is positively and significantly associated with the transition to bad times. Our results show that our statistical tool can be a reliable method for early warning of social crisis and can be effectively replicated to other social crisis situations.

Suggested Citation

  • André De Palma & Federico Perali & Nathalie Picard & Roberto Ricciuti & Alexandrina Scorbureanu, 2013. "Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict," THEMA Working Papers 2013-26, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2013-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://thema.u-cergy.fr/IMG/documents/2013-26.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2008. "West Bank and Gaza : Palestinian Trade, West Bank Routes," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7862, The World Bank.
    2. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Apostolos Stagiannis, 2010. "Armed Conflicts And Capital Markets: The Case Of The Israeli Military Offensive In The Gaza Strip," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 357-365.
    3. Sayre Edward A, 2009. "Labor Market Conditions, Political Events, and Palestinian Suicide Bombings," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28, May.
    4. Aaron Clauset & Maxwell Young & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2007. "On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 58-87, February.
    5. Koch Michael & Tkach Benjamin, 2012. "Deterring or Mobilizing? The Influence of Government Partisanship and Force on the Frequency, Lethality and Suicide Attacks of Terror Events," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, August.
    6. Paul de Boer & Marco Missaglia, 2006. "Economic consequences of intifada," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 97-106.
    7. Muhammad Asali, 2010. "Jewish-Arab Wage Gap: What Are The Causes?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 367-380.
    8. Caruso Raul & Gavrilova Evelina, 2012. "Youth Unemployment, Terrorism and Political Violence, Evidence from the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-37, August.
    9. Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
    10. Edward Sayre, 2010. "Political Instability, Closures And Labor Reallocation In The West Bank And Gaza Strip," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 337-355.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    crisis prevention; alert index; news; Israel; Palestine;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • P48 - Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Political Economy; Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2013-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stefania Marcassa). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/themafr.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.