IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ema/worpap/2013-26.html

Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Author

Listed:
  • André De Palma

    (Ecole Normale Supérieure de Cachan)

  • Federico Perali

    (University of Verona and CHILD)

  • Nathalie Picard

    (Universite de Cergy-Pontoise)

  • Roberto Ricciuti

    (University of Verona and CESifo)

  • Alexandrina Scorbureanu

    (University of Verona)

Abstract

This study presents a novel approach to crisis prevention based on data on premonitory political and religious events and the international media coverage of publicly sensitive circumstances. We implement our method to the Israel-Palestine conflict. First we identify two main political scenarios associated with "good" and "bad" political times of low or high levels of political unrest using a hierarchical clustering technique. Then we construct a political alert index to predict the probability of occurrence of good and bad times. Bad times are positively and significantly associated with the number of Israeli victims at the checkpoints, the number of homeless or injured Palestinians and with the number of demolitions. The number of Palestinian prisoners and injured Israelis negatively affect the probability of occurrence of a bad time. Media coverage is positively and significantly associated with the transition to bad times. Our results show that our statistical tool can be a reliable method for early warning of social crisis and can be effectively replicated to other social crisis situations.

Suggested Citation

  • André De Palma & Federico Perali & Nathalie Picard & Roberto Ricciuti & Alexandrina Scorbureanu, 2013. "Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict," Thema Working Papers 2013-26, THEMA (Théorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), CY Cergy-Paris University, ESSEC and CNRS.
    • Handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2013-26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://thema-cergy.eu/repec/pdf/2013-26.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. World Bank, 2008. "West Bank and Gaza : Palestinian Trade, West Bank Routes," World Bank Publications - Reports 7862, The World Bank Group.
    2. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Apostolos Stagiannis, 2010. "Armed Conflicts And Capital Markets: The Case Of The Israeli Military Offensive In The Gaza Strip," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 357-365.
    3. Sayre Edward A, 2009. "Labor Market Conditions, Political Events, and Palestinian Suicide Bombings," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, May.
    4. Aaron Clauset & Maxwell Young & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2007. "On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 58-87, February.
    5. Koch Michael & Tkach Benjamin, 2012. "Deterring or Mobilizing? The Influence of Government Partisanship and Force on the Frequency, Lethality and Suicide Attacks of Terror Events," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, August.
    6. repec:wbk:wbpubs:8150 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Paul de Boer & Marco Missaglia, 2006. "Economic consequences of intifada," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 97-106.
    8. Muhammad Asali, 2010. "Jewish-Arab Wage Gap: What Are The Causes?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 367-380.
    9. Caruso Raul & Gavrilova Evelina, 2012. "Youth Unemployment, Terrorism and Political Violence, Evidence from the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-37, August.
    10. Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
    11. Edward Sayre, 2010. "Political Instability, Closures And Labor Reallocation In The West Bank And Gaza Strip," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 337-355.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caruso Raul & Gavrilova Evelina, 2012. "Youth Unemployment, Terrorism and Political Violence, Evidence from the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-37, August.
    2. Caruso Raul & Klor Esteban F., 2012. "Political Economy Studies on the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Introduction," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-10, August.
    3. Richard Estes & M. Sirgy, 2014. "Radical Islamic Militancy and Acts of Terrorism: A Quality-of-Life Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 117(2), pages 615-652, June.
    4. Rubin, Ofir D. & Ihle, Rico & Kachel, Yael & Goodwin, Barry K., 2013. "The impact of violent political conflict on commodity prices: The Israeli food market," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150961, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    5. Miaari, Sami & Zussman, Asaf & Zussman, Noam, 2014. "Employment restrictions and political violence in the Israeli–Palestinian conflict," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 24-44.
    6. Michela Sironi & Federico Perali & Maikol Furlani & Alexandrina Ioana Scorbureanu, 2012. "A feasibility analysis of the Jenin Sustainable Industrial and Logistic District," Working Papers 36/2012, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    7. Al-Ississ Mohamad, 2015. "The Cross-Border Impact of Political Violence," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 21(2), pages 239-272, April.
    8. Ofir D. Rubin & Rico Ihle, 2017. "Measuring Temporal Dimensions of the Intensity of Violent Political Conflict," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 132(2), pages 621-642, June.
    9. de Boer, P.M.C., 2008. "Lack of peaceful resolution with Israel: economic cost for Palestinians," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2008-23, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    10. Mojanoski Goran & Bucevska Vesna, 2022. "Event study on the reaction of the Balkan stock markets to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Paradigm, vol. 8(2), pages 18-27, December.
    11. Asali, Muhammad, 2015. "Compulsory Military Service and Future Earnings: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 8892, IZA Network @ LISER.
    12. repec:ere:journl:v:xxxvii:y:2018:i:2:p:155-176 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Bagchi, Aniruddha & Paul, Jomon A., 2018. "Youth unemployment and terrorism in the MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan) region," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 9-20.
    14. Kollias Christos & Papadamou Stephanos & Psarianos Iacovos, 2014. "Rogue State Behavior and Markets: the Financial Fallout of North Korean Nuclear Tests," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 267-292, April.
    15. Hanedar, Avni Önder & Hanedar, Elmas Yaldız, 2017. "Ottoman stock returns during the Turco-Italian and Balkan Wars of 1910-1914," eabh Papers 17-02, The European Association for Banking and Financial History (EABH).
    16. de Boer, P.M.C. & Missaglia, M., 2005. "Introducing the indirect addilog system in a computable general equilibrium model: a case study for Palestine," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-25, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    17. Kollias, Christos & Kyrtsou, Catherine & Papadamou, Stephanos, 2013. "The effects of terrorism and war on the oil price–stock index relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 743-752.
    18. Elie Bouri & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Hardik A. Marfatia, 2019. "Geopolitical Risks and Movements in Islamic Bond and Equity Markets: A Note," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 367-379, April.
    19. Muhammad Asali, 2015. "Recessions are not good for your health: the counter-cyclical health outcomes revisited," European Economic Letters, European Economics Letters Group, vol. 4(1), pages 11-14.
    20. Shroff, Sumita & Agrawal, Nidhi & Paliwal, Udai Lal & Yadav, Miklesh Prasad, 2025. "How do selected asset classes react to sudden shocks? Evidence from Israel-Hamas conflict using Event Study approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    21. Hinkkainen Kaisa, 2013. "Homegrown Terrorism: The Known Unknown," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 157-182, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2013-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lisa Collin (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/themafr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.