Social Crisis Prevention: A Political Alert Index for the Israel-Palestine Conflict
This study presents a novel approach to crisis prevention based on data on premonitory political and religious events and the international media coverage of publicly sensitive circumstances. We implement our method to the Israel-Palestine conflict. First we identify two main political scenarios associated with "good" and "bad" political times of low or high levels of political unrest using a hierarchical clustering technique. Then we construct a political alert index to predict the probability of occurrence of good and bad times. Bad times are positively and significantly associated with the number of Israeli victims at the checkpoints, the number of homeless or injured Palestinians and with the number of demolitions. The number of Palestinian prisoners and injured Israelis negatively affect the probability of occurrence of a bad time. Media coverage is positively and significantly associated with the transition to bad times. Our results show that our statistical tool can be a reliable method for early warning of social crisis and can be effectively replicated to other social crisis situations.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 33, boulevard du port - 95011 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex|
Phone: 33 1 34 25 60 63
Fax: 33 1 34 25 62 33
Web page: http://thema.u-cergy.fr
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- World Bank, 2008. "West Bank and Gaza : Palestinian Trade, West Bank Routes," World Bank Other Operational Studies 7862, The World Bank.
- Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Apostolos Stagiannis, 2010. "Armed Conflicts And Capital Markets: The Case Of The Israeli Military Offensive In The Gaza Strip," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 357-365.
- Muhammad Asali, 2010. "Jewish-Arab Wage Gap: What Are The Causes?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 367-380.
- Caruso Raul & Gavrilova Evelina, 2012.
"Youth Unemployment, Terrorism and Political Violence, Evidence from the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict,"
Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy,
De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-37, August.
- Caruso, Raul & Gavrilova, Evelina, 2011. "Youth Unemployment, Terrorism and Political Violence, Evidence from the Israeli/Palestinian Conflict," NEPS Working Papers 6/2011, Network of European Peace Scientists.
- Sayre Edward A, 2009. "Labor Market Conditions, Political Events, and Palestinian Suicide Bombings," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 1-28, May.
- Edward A. Sayre, 2005. "Labor Market Conditions, Political Events and Palestinian Suicide Bombings," Labor and Demography 0504007, EconWPA.
- Paul de Boer & Marco Missaglia, 2006. "Economic consequences of intifada," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 97-106.
- de Boer, P.M.C. & Missaglia, M., 2005. "Economic consequences of intifada," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2005-21, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Aaron Clauset & Maxwell Young & Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, 2007. "On the Frequency of Severe Terrorist Events," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 51(1), pages 58-87, February.
- Patrick T. Brandt & John R. Freeman & Philip A. Schrodt, 2011. "Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-State Political Conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 28(1), pages 41-64, February.
- Koch Michael & Tkach Benjamin, 2012. "Deterring or Mobilizing? The Influence of Government Partisanship and Force on the Frequency, Lethality and Suicide Attacks of Terror Events," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 18(2), pages 1-29, August.
- Edward Sayre, 2010. "Political Instability, Closures And Labor Reallocation In The West Bank And Gaza Strip," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 337-355. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ema:worpap:2013-26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Stefania Marcassa)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.