IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v35y2016i34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of rural out-migration in Ethiopia: Who stays and who goes?

Author

Listed:
  • Atsede Desta Tegegne

    (Universität für Bodenkultur Wien (BOKU))

  • Marianne Penker

    (Universität für Bodenkultur Wien (BOKU))

Abstract

Background: Rural out-migration is a common phenomenon in Ethiopia. Several studies explain migration as the outcome of an individual utility-maximizing decision. This perspective ignores the diversity of migration types and inadequately explains migration in the wider context of mutual and interdependent risk-sharing strategies of household members in response to locational advantages and disadvantages. Objective: The main objective of this study is to examine households' choice of short-term and long-term migration and its underlying determinants in different locational contexts. Methods: Based on the household-centred New Economics Labour Migration (NELM) framework, we conducted quasi-longitudinal and context-specific structured interviews with 553 randomly selected households in four rural study sites in north-west Ethiopia. The determinants of household migration decisions on the one hand and the variables explaining decisions for short-term and long-term migration were analysed in a binary logistic regression and a multinomial logistic regression. Results: The results show a positive relation between migration decisions and household variables such as a higher education status, perceived food insufficiency, female household heads, household-head age, household size, and number of economic activities. Beyond the NELM framework, location in different livelihood zones is also significant in diverging migration strategies. Short-term migration is very much driven by locational advantages and food insufficiency. The propensity for long-term migration significantly increases for households with a higher educational level, but declines with a rising number of dependent household members. Contribution: We contribute to the discussion of ambiguous determinants of migration and provide more differentiated insight into short-term and long-term migration decisions. Besides strong support for the NELM framework, we highlight the relevance of education for long-term migration and locational meso-level factors for short-term migration.

Suggested Citation

  • Atsede Desta Tegegne & Marianne Penker, 2016. "Determinants of rural out-migration in Ethiopia: Who stays and who goes?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(34), pages 1011-1044.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:35:y:2016:i:34
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol35/34/35-34.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2016.35.34?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rachel Sabates-Wheeler & Ricardo Sabates & Adriana Castaldo, 2008. "Tackling Poverty-migration Linkages: Evidence from Ghana and Egypt," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 87(2), pages 307-328, June.
    2. Todaro, Michael P, 1969. "A Model for Labor Migration and Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(1), pages 138-148, March.
    3. de Brauw, Alan & Mueller, Valerie & Woldehanna, Tassew, 2013. "Motives to Remit: Evidence from Tracked Internal Migrants in Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 13-23.
    4. Alan de Brauw & Valerie Mueller, 2012. "Do Limitations in Land Rights Transferability Influence Mobility Rates in Ethiopia?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 21(4), pages 548-579, August.
    5. Stark, Oded & Bloom, David E, 1985. "The New Economics of Labor Migration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(2), pages 173-178, May.
    6. Frank Ellis, 2000. "The Determinants of Rural Livelihood Diversification in Developing Countries," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 289-302, May.
    7. Blessing Mberu, 2006. "Internal migration and household living conditions in Ethiopia," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 14(21), pages 509-540.
    8. Bezu, Sosina & Holden, Stein, 2014. "Are Rural Youth in Ethiopia Abandoning Agriculture?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 259-272.
    9. Jessica Heckert, 2015. "New perspective on youth migration," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 33(27), pages 765-800.
    10. Mckenzie, David & Rapoport, Hillel, 2007. "Network effects and the dynamics of migration and inequality: Theory and evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 1-24, September.
    11. Dennis Görlich & Christoph Trebesch, 2008. "Seasonal Migration and Networks—Evidence on Moldova’s Labour Exodus," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(1), pages 107-133, April.
    12. Easterlin, Richard A, 2001. "Income and Happiness: Towards an Unified Theory," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(473), pages 465-484, July.
    13. de Brauw, Alan & Mueller, Valerie & Lee, Hak Lim, 2014. "The Role of Rural–Urban Migration in the Structural Transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 33-42.
    14. Stefan Dercon & John Hoddinott & Tassew Woldehanna, 2005. "Shocks and Consumption in 15 Ethiopian Villages, 1999--2004," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(4), pages 559-585, December.
    15. Gray, Clark & Mueller, Valerie, 2012. "Drought and Population Mobility in Rural Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 134-145.
    16. Alexandre Abreu, 2012. "The New Economics of Labor Migration: Beware of Neoclassicals Bearing Gifts," Forum for Social Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 46-67, April.
    17. Belay, Kassa, 2004. "Resettlement of Peasants in Ethiopia," Journal of Rural Development/Nongchon-Gyeongje, Korea Rural Economic Institute, vol. 27(4), December.
    18. Harris, John R & Todaro, Michael P, 1970. "Migration, Unemployment & Development: A Two-Sector Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 60(1), pages 126-142, March.
    19. Zezza, Alberto & Carletto, Calogero & Davis, Benjamin & Winters, Paul, 2011. "Assessing the impact of migration on food and nutrition security," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 1-6, February.
    20. Mendola, Mariapia, 2008. "Migration and technological change in rural households: Complements or substitutes?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 150-175, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mussa, E.C. & Mirzabaev, A. & Admassie, A. & Rukundo, E.N., 2018. "Effects of childhood work on long-term out-migration decision in rural Ethiopia," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 276004, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. Martín, Iván & Nori, Michele & Bacchi, Alessia, 2017. "Effects of Youth Migration on Agricultural Production and Employment in the Rural Areas of Origin in Tunisia," 2017 Sixth AIEAA Conference, June 15-16, Piacenza, Italy 263007, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    3. Catalina Herrera Almanza & David E. Sahn, 2020. "Childhood determinants of internal youth migration in Senegal," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(45), pages 1335-1366.
    4. Kerilyn Schewel & Sonja Fransen, 2018. "Formal Education and Migration Aspirations in Ethiopia," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 44(3), pages 555-587, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kosec, Katrina & Ghebru, Hosaena & Holtemeyer, Brian & Mueller, Valerie & Schmidt, Emily, 2016. "The effect of land inheritance on youth employment and migration decisions: Evidence from rural Ethiopia," IFPRI discussion papers 1594, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. de Brauw, Alan & Mueller, Valerie & Lee, Hak Lim, 2014. "The Role of Rural–Urban Migration in the Structural Transformation of Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 33-42.
    3. Katrina Kosec & Hosaena Ghebru & Brian Holtemeyer & Valerie Mueller & Emily Schmidt, 2018. "The Effect of Land Access on Youth Employment and Migration Decisions: Evidence from Rural Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(3), pages 931-954.
    4. Catalina Herrera Almanza & David E. Sahn, 2020. "Childhood determinants of internal youth migration in Senegal," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 43(45), pages 1335-1366.
    5. Tebboth, M.G.L. & Conway, D. & Adger, W.N., 2019. "Mobility endowment and entitlements mediate resilience in rural livelihood systems," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100210, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    6. Marta Schoch, 2020. "Essays on political economy, inequality and development," Economics PhD Theses 0120, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    7. repec:zbw:iamodp:109518 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Robalino, Juan & Jimenez, José & Chacón, Adriana, 2015. "The Effect of Hydro-Meteorological Emergencies on Internal Migration," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 438-448.
    9. Michael Clemens, 2014. "Does Development Reduce Migration? - Working Paper 359," Working Papers 359, Center for Global Development.
    10. Alan de Brauw & Valerie Mueller & Tassew Woldehanna, 2018. "Does Internal Migration Improve Overall Well-Being in Ethiopia?," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 27(3), pages 367-367.
    11. Klabunde, Anna, 2014. "Computational Economic Modeling of Migration," Ruhr Economic Papers 471, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    12. Lori M. Hunter & Sheena Murray & Fernando Riosmena, 2013. "Rainfall Patterns and U.S. Migration from Rural Mexico," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(4), pages 874-909, December.
    13. Ashira Menashe Oren, 2020. "Migrant-based youth bulges and social conflict in urban sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(3), pages 57-98.
    14. Akasaka, Shintaro, 2016. "Macro determinants of Migration: Review and Analysis," MPRA Paper 106509, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2016.
    15. Catalina Herrera & David Sahn, 2013. "Determinants of Internal Migration among Senegalese Youth," Working Papers halshs-00826995, HAL.
    16. Rodríguez-Montemayor, Eduardo & García, Pablo M., 2018. "A Primer of International Migration: The Latin American Experience," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 2544, Inter-American Development Bank.
    17. Eva-Maria Egger & Julie Litchfield, 2019. "Following in their footsteps: an analysis of the impact of successive migration on rural household welfare in Ghana," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, December.
    18. Zakiyyah, Varachia, 2018. "Review and Analysis of Macro Determinants of Migration," MPRA Paper 106445, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2018.
    19. Elena Vitalievna, Lebedeva, 2007. "Determinants of International Migration and Remittances," MPRA Paper 104789, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    20. Eliza Zhunusova & Roland Herrmann, 2018. "Development Impacts of International Migration on “Sending” Communities: The Case of Rural Kyrgyzstan," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(5), pages 871-891, December.
    21. Nguyen, Duc Loc & Grote, Ulrike & Nguyen, Trung Thanh, 2019. "Migration, crop production and non-farm labor diversification in rural Vietnam," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 175-187.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    determinants; binary logistic regression; short-term migration; long-term migration; livelihood zones; household interviews;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:35:y:2016:i:34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.