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Price Transmission Subject to Security‐based Trade Barriers in the Context of the Israeli‐Palestinian Conflict


  • Ihle, Rico
  • Rubin, Ofir D.


Israel’s imposition of military security measures in the Palestinian territories as a consequence of the long-lasting violent conflict yields depressing economic effects to all parties involved. One crucial implication is the limited ability to carry out trade which brings about welfare losses. This paper assesses the consequences of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on price dynamics of agricultural trade between Israel and the West Bank by analyzing daily wholesale prices subject to movement restrictions. An exogenous regime switching cointegration model is estimated using a novel extension of the Johansen estimation method. We find Hebron and Tel Aviv wholesale markets to be integrated for the main trading products. Deviations from price equilibrium are quickly adjusted for. The model suggests that the movement restrictions temporarily cut off both markets from each other. Welfare implications of the closures depend on the direction of trade, harming both Palestinian and Israeli consumers.

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  • Ihle, Rico & Rubin, Ofir D., 2012. "Price Transmission Subject to Security‐based Trade Barriers in the Context of the Israeli‐Palestinian Conflict," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125392, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:iaae12:125392

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    1. von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 1998. "Estimating Asymmetric Price Transmission with the Error Correction Representation: An application to the German Pork Market," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 25(1), pages 1-18.
    2. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    3. Rico Ihle & Joseph Amikuzuno, 2010. "Assessing Seasonal Asymmetric Price Transmission in Ghanaian Tomato Markets With the Johansen Estimation Method," Courant Research Centre: Poverty, Equity and Growth - Discussion Papers 53, Courant Research Centre PEG.
    4. Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2000. "Testing For The Cointegrating Rank Of A Var Process With An Intercept," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(03), pages 373-406, June.
    5. Gloria González-Rivera & Steven M. Helfand, 2001. "The Extent, Pattern, and Degree of Market Integration: A Multivariate Approach for the Brazilian Rice Market," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 576-592.
    6. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    7. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
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    9. repec:cup:apsrev:v:95:y:2001:i:01:p:49-69_00 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Rubin, Ofir D. & Ihle, Rico & Kachel, Yael & Goodwin, Barry K., 2013. "The impact of violent political conflict on commodity prices: The Israeli food market," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 150961, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

    More about this item


    Agricultural trade; cointegration; exogenous regime-switching; Israel; Middle East; Palestinian territories; price transmission; violent conflict; Agricultural and Food Policy; Demand and Price Analysis; Food Security and Poverty; International Relations/Trade; C32; D74; Q11; Q13; F15;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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