IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ris/drxlwp/2021_007.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Timing the Impact of Sanctions on Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Dai, Mian

    () (School of Economics)

  • Felbermayr, Gabriel

    () (Kiel Institute & Kiel University)

  • Kirilakha, Aleksandra

    () (School of Economics)

  • Syropoulos, Constantinos

    () (School of Economics)

  • Yalcin, Erdal

    () (University of Applied Sciences Constance)

  • Yotov, Yoto

    () (School of Economics)

Abstract

We capitalize on the latest estimation methods in the empirical gravity literature and the development of a new dataset (the Global Sanctions Data Base, GSDB) to study the evolution, over time, of the effects of sanctions on international trade. Our analysis reveals that the contemporaneous effects of sanctions on trade are large, negative and statistically significant. Additionally, we obtain negative and significant anticipatory effects prior to the official imposition of sanctions, as well as negative and significant post-sanction effects, which disappear gradually approximately eight years after the lifting of sanctions. Our work generates several insights related to the estimation of the impact of sanctions on trade and unveils new avenues for future work. For example, we find the strength of the negative impact of sanctions to rise with the duration of the time that sanctions are in force. Moreover, our analysis of unilateral vs. multilateral and US vs. UN vs. EU sanctions suggests that unilateral sanctions and sanctions imposed by the US stand out as being most effective. A battery of sensitivity experiments confirms the robustness of our main findings and conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dai, Mian & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kirilakha, Aleksandra & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto, 2021. "Timing the Impact of Sanctions on Trade," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-7, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, revised 19 Feb 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2021_007
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hnOl53dBqtdrDJqFZTk9rU5RPrfpY_lB/view?usp=sharing
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sanctions; the GSDB; Trade Effects; Timing; Duration; Evolution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:drxlwp:2021_007. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Richard C. Barnett). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/cbdreus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.