IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jeborg/v226y2024ics0167268124003159.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

International sanctions and emigration

Author

Listed:
  • Gutmann, Jerg
  • Langer, Pascal
  • Neuenkirch, Matthias

Abstract

In this first statistical analysis of how international sanctions affect international migration, we apply two estimation strategies, a panel difference-in-differences model and an event study approach. Our dataset covers 79,791 dyad-year observations, reflecting migration flows from 157 origin countries to 32 industrialized destination countries between 1961 and 2018. We find that UN and joint EU-US sanctions increase emigration from target countries by around 20 percent. Our event study results for joint EU-US sanctions imply a gradual increase in emigration throughout a sanction episode. The impact of UN sanctions on international migration is smaller and less persistent. Moreover, the effects are driven by target countries with limited freedom of political expression, where emigration substitutes for the costly voicing of dissent. Finally, there appear to be no systematic gender differences in the migration effect of sanctions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gutmann, Jerg & Langer, Pascal & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2024. "International sanctions and emigration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:226:y:2024:i:c:s0167268124003159
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106709
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167268124003159
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jebo.2024.106709?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:cup:apsrev:v:113:y:2019:i:03:p:868-881_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kirilakha, Aleksandra & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto V., 2020. "The global sanctions data base," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    3. Tibor Besedeš & Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2017. "You’re banned! The effect of sanctions on German cross-border financial flows," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 32(90), pages 263-318.
    4. Michel Beine & Pauline Bourgeon & Jean‐Charles Bricongne, 2019. "Aggregate Fluctuations and International Migration," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(1), pages 117-152, January.
    5. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2016. "The impact of US sanctions on poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 110-119.
    6. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2021. "Sanctioned to Death? The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Life Expectancy and its Gender Gap," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 139-162, January.
    7. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Do China and Russia undermine Western sanctions? Evidence from DiD and event study estimation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 132-160, February.
    8. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    9. Matthieu Crozet & Julian Hinz, 2020. "Friendly fire: the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 35(101), pages 97-146.
    10. Gibson, John & McKenzie, David, 2011. "The microeconomic determinants of emigration and return migration of the best and brightest: Evidence from the Pacific," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 18-29, May.
    11. Dursun Peksen & Byunghwan Son, 2015. "Economic coercion and currency crises in target countries," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 52(4), pages 448-462, July.
    12. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "Precision-guided or blunt? The effects of US economic sanctions on human rights," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 161-182, October.
    13. Gold, Robert & Hinz, Julian & Valsecchi, Michele, 2023. "To Russia with love? The impact of sanctions on regime support," Kiel Working Papers 2212, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    14. Kurt Schmidheiny & Sebastian Siegloch, 2023. "On event studies and distributed‐lags in two‐way fixed effects models: Identification, equivalence, and generalization," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(5), pages 695-713, August.
    15. Attia, Hana & Grauvogel, Julia & von Soest, Christian, 2020. "The termination of international sanctions: explaining target compliance and sender capitulation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    16. Jiafeng Chen & Jonathan Roth, 2024. "Logs with Zeros? Some Problems and Solutions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 139(2), pages 891-936.
    17. Nikolay Marinov, 2005. "Do Economic Sanctions Destabilize Country Leaders?," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 49(3), pages 564-576, July.
    18. Cucu, Florin & Panon, Ludovic, 2023. "Asylum policies and international tensions," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    19. Ryan Yu-Lin Liou & Amanda Murdie & Dursun Peksen, 2023. "Pressures From Home and Abroad: Economic Sanctions and Target Government Response to Domestic Campaigns," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(2-3), pages 297-325, February.
    20. Firat Demir & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2022. "Gendered effects of sanctions on manufacturing employment: Evidence from Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2040-2069, November.
    21. Ruyssen, Ilse & Salomone, Sara, 2018. "Female migration: A way out of discrimination?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 224-241.
    22. Fariss, Christopher J., 2019. "Yes, Human Rights Practices Are Improving Over Time," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 868-881, August.
    23. Dreher, Axel & Krieger, Tim & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2011. "Hit and (they will) run: The impact of terrorism on migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 42-46, October.
    24. Neumayer Eric & Plümper Thomas, 2021. "Women’s economic rights in developing countries and the gender gap in migration to Germany," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 12(1), pages 1-23, January.
    25. repec:wsr:wpaper:y:2015:i:138 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku & Mahadevan, Renuka, 2016. "The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Income Inequality of Target States," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 1-11.
    27. Hoon Lee & David Lektzian & Glen Biglaiser, 2023. "The Effects of Economic Sanctions on Foreign Asset Expropriation," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 67(2-3), pages 266-296, February.
    28. Eichenberger Reiner & Stadelmann David, 2022. "Sanctions are Costly for Citizens but Beneficial for Autocrats: A Political-Economic Perspective," The Economists' Voice, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 109-123, December.
    29. William Seitz & Alberto Zazzaro, 2020. "Sanctions and public opinion: The case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 817-843, October.
    30. Moteng, Ghislain & Raghutla, Chandrashekar & Njangang, Henri & Nembot, Luc Ndeffo, 2023. "International sanctions and energy poverty in target developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    31. Emre Hatipoglu & Dursun Peksen, 2018. "Economic Sanctions and Banking Crises in Target Economies," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(2), pages 171-189, February.
    32. Afesorgbor, Sylvanus Kwaku, 2019. "The impact of economic sanctions on international trade: How do threatened sanctions compare with imposed sanctions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 11-26.
    33. Biglaiser, Glen & Lektzian, David, 2011. "The Effect of Sanctions on U.S. Foreign Direct Investment," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 531-551, July.
    34. Callaway, Brantly & Sant’Anna, Pedro H.C., 2021. "Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 225(2), pages 200-230.
    35. Shchepeleva, Maria & Stolbov, Mikhail & Weill, Laurent, 2024. "Do sanctions trigger financial crises?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    36. Chao Jing & William H. Kaempfer & Anton D. Lowenberg, 2003. "Instrument Choice and the Effectiveness of International Sanctions: A Simultaneous Equations Approach," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 40(5), pages 519-535, September.
    37. Mirkina, Irina, 2018. "FDI and sanctions: An empirical analysis of short- and long-run effects," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 198-225.
    38. Christina Davenport & Will Moore & Steven Poe, 2003. "Sometimes You Just Have to Leave: Domestic Threats and Forced Migration, 1964-1989," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 27-55, January.
    39. Dai, Mian & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kirilakha, Aleksandra & Syropoulos, Constantinos & Yalcin, Erdal & Yotov, Yoto, 2021. "Timing the Impact of Sanctions on Trade," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2021-7, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University, revised 19 Feb 2021.
    40. Antonis Adam & Sofia Tsarsitalidou, 2019. "Do sanctions lead to a decline in civil liberties?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 180(3), pages 191-215, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zareei, Afsaneh & Falahi, Mohammad Ali & Wadensjö, Eskil & Sadati, Saeed Malek, 2024. "International Sanctions and Labor Emigration: A Case Study of Iran," IZA Discussion Papers 17062, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gutmann, Jerg & Neuenkirch, Matthias & Neumeier, Florian, 2023. "The economic effects of international sanctions: An event study," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(4), pages 1214-1231.
    2. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Political Economy of International Sanctions," Research Papers in Economics 2024-07, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    3. Moghaddasi Kelishomi, Ali & Nisticò, Roberto, 2022. "Employment effects of economic sanctions in Iran," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    4. Firat Demir & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2022. "Gendered effects of sanctions on manufacturing employment: Evidence from Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2040-2069, November.
    5. Chen, Mo & Xue, Wei-Xian & Zhao, Xin-Xin & Chang, Chun-Ping & Liu, Xiaoxia, 2024. "The impact of economic sanctions on the COVID-19 pandemic," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 163-174.
    6. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2024. "Do China and Russia undermine Western sanctions? Evidence from DiD and event study estimation," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 132-160, February.
    7. Vincenzo Bove & Jessica Di Salvatore & Roberto Nisticò, 2023. "Economic Sanctions and Trade Flows in the Neighborhood," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 671-697.
    8. Aldunate, Felipe & González, Felipe & Prem, Mounu, 2024. "The limits of hegemony: U.S. banks and Chilean firms in the Cold War," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    9. Devasmita Jena & C. Akash & Prachi Gupta, 2024. "Deflecting economic sanctions: do trade and political alliances matter?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 543-567, July.
    10. Afesorgbor, S. Kwaku & Kornher, Lukas & Santeramo, Fabio, 2023. "The impacts of economic sanctions on food (prices) security: Evidence from targeted countries," 2023: The Future of (Ag-) Trade and Trade Governance in Times of Economic Sanctions and Declining Multilateralism, December 10-12, Clearwater Beach, FL 339511, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    11. Ali Moghaddasi Kelishomi & Roberto Nisticò, 2021. "Employment Effects of Economic Sanctions," CSEF Working Papers 615, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    12. Anirudh Shingal, 2023. "Sanctions and services trade: the neglected dimension," RSCAS Working Papers 2023/39, European University Institute.
    13. Hatipoglu, Emre & Soytas, Mehmet Ali & Belaïd, Fateh, 2023. "Environmental consequences of geopolitical crises: The case of economic sanctions and emissions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    14. Jun Wen & Xinxin Zhao & Chun‐Ping Chang, 2024. "The impact of international sanctions on innovation of target countries," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 39-79, March.
    15. Görg, Holger & Jacobs, Anna & Meuchelböck, Saskia, 2023. "Who is to suffer? Quantifying the impact of sanctions on German firms," Kiel Working Papers 2248, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    16. Shchepeleva, Maria & Stolbov, Mikhail & Weill, Laurent, 2024. "Do sanctions trigger financial crises?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    17. Barseghyan, Gayane, 2019. "Sanctions and counter-sanctions : What did they do?," BOFIT Discussion Papers 24/2019, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    18. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2020. "Precision-guided or blunt? The effects of US economic sanctions on human rights," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 185(1), pages 161-182, October.
    19. Toke S. Aidt & Facundo Albornoz & Esther Hauk, 2019. "Foreign in influence and domestic policy: A survey," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1928, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    20. Jerg Gutmann & Matthias Neuenkirch & Florian Neumeier, 2021. "Sanctioned to Death? The Impact of Economic Sanctions on Life Expectancy and its Gender Gap," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 139-162, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exit; Gender differences; International sanctions; Migration; Voice;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • K38 - Law and Economics - - Other Substantive Areas of Law - - - Human Rights Law; Gender Law; Animal Rights Law
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:226:y:2024:i:c:s0167268124003159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.