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You’re banned! The effect of sanctions on German cross-border financial flows

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  • Besedeš, Tibor
  • Goldbach, Stefan
  • Nitsch, Volker

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of financial sanctions on cross-border capital flows. While sanctions can be expected to hinder international transactions, thereby putting political and economic pressure on a target country, we study the patterns of adjustment in bilateral financial relationships after the imposition of sanctions along various dimensions. Our analysis is based on highly disaggregated, monthly data from the German balance of payments statistics for the period from 2005 through 2014. During this time, Germany imposed financial sanctions on 20 countries; two of these sanctions have been lifted. Applying a differences-in-differences approach, we find two key results. First, financial sanctions have a strong and immediate negative effect on cross-border financial flows, with flows reduced in either direction. Second, sanctions imposed by the European Union alone, and therefore only enforced by their member countries instead of the United Nations, are possibly partly evaded.
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Suggested Citation

  • Besedeš, Tibor & Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2017. "You’re banned! The effect of sanctions on German cross-border financial flows," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 88417, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:88417
    DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eix001
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/88417/
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    Cited by:

    1. Wang, Siqin & Wen, Jun & Zhao, Xinxin & Zhou, Xiaozhou, 2025. "Impacts of international sanctions on sender countries’ innovation," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1357-1373.
    2. Peter Egger & Constantinos Syropoulos & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Analyzing the effects of economic sanctions: Recent theory, data, and quantification," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 1-11, February.
    3. Ina C. Jäkel & Søren Østervig & Erdal Yalcin, 2024. "The effects of heterogeneous sanctions on exporting firms: Evidence from Denmark," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 161-189, February.
    4. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2022. "The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 599-616.
    5. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova & Steven Ongena, 2023. "'Crime and Punishment'? How Banks Anticipate and Propagate Global Financial Sanctions," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-59, Swiss Finance Institute.
    6. Drott, Constantin & Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2024. "The effects of sanctions on Russian banks in TARGET2 transactions data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 219(C), pages 38-51.
    7. Djankov, Simeon & Su, Meng, 2025. "The targeting of economic sanctions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    8. Tristan Kohl & Marcel van den Berg & Loe Franssen, 2024. "Going Dutch? Firm exports and FDI in the wake of the 2014 EU‐Russia sanctions," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 190-222, February.
    9. Gold, Robert & Hinz, Julian & Valsecchi, Michele, 2023. "To Russia with love? The impact of sanctions on regime support," Kiel Working Papers 2212, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    10. Lisandra Flach & Inga Heiland & Mario Larch & Marina Steininger & Feodora A. Teti, 2024. "Quantifying the partial and general equilibrium effects of sanctions on Russia," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 281-323, February.
    11. Firat Demir & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2022. "Gendered effects of sanctions on manufacturing employment: Evidence from Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2040-2069, November.
    12. Gutmann, Jerg & Langer, Pascal & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2024. "International sanctions and emigration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    13. Piotr Lukaszuk, 2021. "You can smuggle but you can't hide: Sanction evasion during the Ukraine crisis," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 71(01), pages 73-125, December.
    14. Hufbauer, Gary Clyde & Jung, Euijin, 2020. "What's new in economic sanctions?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    15. Devasmita Jena & C. Akash & Prachi Gupta, 2024. "Deflecting economic sanctions: do trade and political alliances matter?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 543-567, July.
    16. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2023. "The Price of War: Macroeconomic and Cross-Sectional Effects of Sanctions on Russia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp756, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    17. Guanghao Li & Guanyi Yin & Wei Wei & Qingzhi Sun & Zhan Zhang & Shenghao Zhu, 2024. "The Prohibition of Forestation on Cultivated Land in China: A Difference-in-Differences Model Analysis of the Effects of Cutting Down Trees on Farmland Transfer," Land, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-17, November.
    18. Conlon, Thomas & Corbet, Shaen & Goodell, John W. & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Oxley, Les, 2024. "Financial market information flows when counteracting rogue states: The indirect effects of targeted sanction packages," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 32-62.
    19. Haoran Li & Xibo Wan & Wendong Zhang, 2024. "Do firms hedge against political tensions? Evidence from Chinese food importers of Norwegian salmon," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(8), pages 3618-3647, August.
    20. Du, Xiayi & Wang, Zi, 2022. "Multinationals, global value chains, and the welfare impacts of economic sanctions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    21. Nicholas Lynch, 2025. "Breaking Bad: Sanctions and Illicit Economic Activity," Working Papers 202517, Center for Global Policy Analysis, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

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