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You’re banned! The effect of sanctions on German cross-border financial flows

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  • Besedeš, Tibor
  • Goldbach, Stefan
  • Nitsch, Volker

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of financial sanctions on cross-border capital flows. While sanctions can be expected to hinder international transactions, thereby putting political and economic pressure on a target country, we study the patterns of adjustment in bilateral financial relationships after the imposition of sanctions along various dimensions. Our analysis is based on highly disaggregated, monthly data from the German balance of payments statistics for the period from 2005 through 2014. During this time, Germany imposed financial sanctions on 20 countries; two of these sanctions have been lifted. Applying a differences-in-differences approach, we find two key results. First, financial sanctions have a strong and immediate negative effect on cross-border financial flows, with flows reduced in either direction. Second, sanctions imposed by the European Union alone, and therefore only enforced by their member countries instead of the United Nations, are possibly partly evaded.
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Suggested Citation

  • Besedeš, Tibor & Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2017. "You’re banned! The effect of sanctions on German cross-border financial flows," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 88417, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
  • Handle: RePEc:dar:wpaper:88417
    DOI: 10.1093/epolic/eix001
    Note: for complete metadata visit http://tubiblio.ulb.tu-darmstadt.de/88417/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Caruso Raul, 2003. "The Impact of International Economic Sanctions on Trade: An Empirical Analysis," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 1-36, April.
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    4. Gary Clyde Hufbauer & Jeffrey J. Schott & Kimberly Ann Elliott, 2007. "Economic Sanctions Reconsidered, 3rd edition (hardcover)," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 4075, January.
    5. Lance Davis & Stanley Engerman, 2003. "History Lessons: Sanctions - Neither War nor Peace," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 187-197, Spring.
    6. Lee, Yong Suk, 2018. "International isolation and regional inequality: Evidence from sanctions on North Korea," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 34-51.
    7. Forbes, Kristin J. & Warnock, Francis E., 2012. "Capital flow waves: Surges, stops, flight, and retrenchment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 235-251.
    8. Slavi T. Slavov, 2007. "Innocent or Not‐so‐innocent Bystanders: Evidence from the Gravity Model of International Trade About the Effects of UN Sanctions on Neighbour Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(11), pages 1701-1725, November.
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    10. Kaempfer, William H. & Lowenberg, Anton D., 2007. "The Political Economy of Economic Sanctions," Handbook of Defense Economics, in: Keith Hartley & Todd Sandler (ed.),Handbook of Defense Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 27, pages 867-911, Elsevier.
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    12. Chao Jing & William H. Kaempfer & Anton D. Lowenberg, 2003. "Instrument Choice and the Effectiveness of International Sanctions: A Simultaneous Equations Approach," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 40(5), pages 519-535, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Efing & Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2018. "Freeze! Financial Sanctions and Bank Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 7424, CESifo.
    2. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2019. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Kiel Working Papers 2119, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "The curse is real in Zimbabwe: economic sanctions must go!," MPRA Paper 96911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Besedeš, Tibor & Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2018. "Cheap talk? Financial sanctions and non-financial activity," Discussion Papers 09/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Lee, Yong Suk, 2018. "International isolation and regional inequality: Evidence from sanctions on North Korea," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 34-51.
    6. Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2020. "Capital controls checkup: Cases, customs, consequences," Discussion Papers 47/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    7. Gullstrand, Joakim, 2018. "What Goes Around Comes Around: The Effects of Sanctions on Swedish Firms in the Wake of the Ukraine Crisis," Working Papers 2018:28, Lund University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

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