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You're banned! the effect of sanctions on German cross-border financial flows

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  • Besedeš, Tibor
  • Goldbach, Stefan
  • Nitsch, Volker

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of financial sanctions on cross-border capital flows. While sanctions can be expected to hinder international transactions, thereby putting political and economic pressure on a target country, we study the patterns of adjustment in bilateral financial relationships after the imposition of sanctions along various dimensions. Our analysis is based on highly disaggregated, monthly data from the German balance of payments statistics for the period from 2005 through 2014. During this time, Germany imposed financial sanctions on 20 countries; two of these sanctions have been lifted. Applying a differences-in-differences approach, we find two key results. First, financial sanctions have a strong and immediate negative effect on cross-border financial flows, with flows reduced in either direction. Second, sanctions imposed by the European Union alone, and therefore only enforced by their member countries instead of the United Nations, are possibly partly evaded.

Suggested Citation

  • Besedeš, Tibor & Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2016. "You're banned! the effect of sanctions on German cross-border financial flows," Discussion Papers 12/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:122016
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    Cited by:

    1. Ina C. Jäkel & Søren Østervig & Erdal Yalcin, 2024. "The effects of heterogeneous sanctions on exporting firms: Evidence from Denmark," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1), pages 161-189, February.
    2. Estrada, Mario Arturo Ruiz & Koutronas, Evangelos, 2022. "The impact of the Russian Aggression against Ukraine on the Russia-EU Trade," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 599-616.
    3. Gold, Robert & Hinz, Julian & Valsecchi, Michele, 2023. "To Russia with love? The impact of sanctions on regime support," Kiel Working Papers 2212, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    4. Piotr Lukaszuk, 2021. "You can smuggle but you can't hide: Sanction evasion during the Ukraine crisis," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 71(01), pages 73-125, December.
    5. Besedeš, Tibor & Goldbach, Stefan & Nitsch, Volker, 2021. "Cheap talk? Financial sanctions and non-financial firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    6. Matthias Efing & Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2018. "Freeze! Financial Sanctions and Bank Responses," CESifo Working Paper Series 7424, CESifo.
    7. Heydarian, Samira & Pahlavani, Mosayeb & Mirjalili, Seyed Hossein, 2021. "Financial Sanctions and Economic Growth: An Intervention Time-series Approach," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 51(1), pages 1-14.
    8. Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2023. "Capital Controls Checkup: Cases, Customs, Consequences," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(4), pages 885-906, December.
    9. Lee, Yong Suk, 2018. "International isolation and regional inequality: Evidence from sanctions on North Korea," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 34-51.
    10. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova & Steven Ongena, 2023. "'Crime and Punishment'? How Banks Anticipate and Propagate Global Financial Sanctions," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 23-59, Swiss Finance Institute.
    11. Hinz, Julian & Monastyrenko, Evgenii, 2022. "Bearing the cost of politics: Consumer prices and welfare in Russia," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Xuepeng Liu & Huimin Shi, 2019. "Anti‐dumping duty circumvention through trade rerouting: Evidence from Chinese exporters," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 1427-1466, May.
    13. Firat Demir & Saleh S. Tabrizy, 2022. "Gendered effects of sanctions on manufacturing employment: Evidence from Iran," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 2040-2069, November.
    14. Jerg Gutmann & Pascal Langer & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2023. "International Sanctions and Emigration," Research Papers in Economics 2023-11, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    15. Hufbauer, Gary Clyde & Jung, Euijin, 2020. "What's new in economic sanctions?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. Kim, Kyoochul, 2020. "Finding Loopholes in Sanctions: Effects of Sanctions on North Korea’s Refined Oil Prices," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 42(4), pages 1-25.
    17. Li, Haoran & Wan, Xibo & Zhang, Wendong, 2020. "How do Firms Respond to Political Tensions? Evidence from Chinese Food Importers," ISU General Staff Papers 202011250800001118, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    18. Joakim Gullstrand, 2020. "What goes around comes around: The effects of sanctions on Swedish firms in the wake of the Ukraine crisis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(9), pages 2315-2342, September.
    19. Nyoni, Thabani, 2019. "The curse is real in Zimbabwe: economic sanctions must go!," MPRA Paper 96911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Tibor Besedeš & Stefan Goldbach & Volker Nitsch, 2018. "Cheap Talk? Financial Sanctions and Non-Financial Activity," CESifo Working Paper Series 7069, CESifo.
    21. Mikhail Mamonov & Anna Pestova, 2023. "The Price of War: Macroeconomic and Cross-Sectional Effects of Sanctions on Russia," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp756, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
    22. Du, Xiayi & Wang, Zi, 2022. "Multinationals, global value chains, and the welfare impacts of economic sanctions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    23. Li, Haoran & Wan, Xibo & Zhang, Wendong, 2021. "How do Firms Respond to Long-term Political Tensions? Evidence from Chinese Food Importers," ISU General Staff Papers 202106020700001118, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    sanction; restriction; cross-border transaction;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls

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