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Sanctions and public opinion : the case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes

Author

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  • Seitz, William
  • Zazzaro, Alberto

Abstract

Economic sanctions usually fail, sometimes even provoking the opposite of the intended outcome. Why are sanctions so often ineffective? One prominent view is that sanctions generate popular support for the targeted government and its policies; an outcome referred to as the rally-around-the-flag effect. We quantify this effect in the context of a major trade dispute between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which led to a cut in gas exports to Ukraine and a sharp increase of gas prices. Using individual data on political and economic preferences before and after the trade dispute and exploiting the cross section heterogeneity in the individual exposure to the price shock—measured by the connection to a centralized gas/heating system—we find that people more directly affected by the increase of gas prices were significantly more likely to change their opinions in support of Western-style political and economic systems preferred by the incumbent government, consistent with a rally-around-the-flag effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Seitz, William & Zazzaro, Alberto, 2019. "Sanctions and public opinion : the case of the Russia-Ukraine gas disputes," IDE Discussion Papers 762, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    • Handle: RePEc:jet:dpaper:dpaper762
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    File URL: https://ir.ide.go.jp/record/51386/files/IDP000762_001.pdf
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Katharina Meissner, 2023. "How to sanction international wrongdoing? The design of EU restrictive measures," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 61-85, January.
    2. Ryan Brutger & Stephen Chaudoin & Max Kagan, 2023. "Trade Wars and Election Interference," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Gutmann, Jerg & Langer, Pascal & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2024. "International sanctions and emigration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    4. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Gutmann, Jerg, 2024. "International Sanctions and Internal Conflict: The Case of Iran," ILE Working Paper Series 82, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    5. Mikhail A Alexseev & Henry E Hale, 2020. "Crimea come what may: Do economic sanctions backfire politically?," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(2), pages 344-359, March.
    6. Kohno, Masaru & Montinola, Gabriella R. & Winters, Matthew S., 2023. "Foreign pressure and public opinion in target states," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions

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