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When to expect a coup d’état? An extreme bounds analysis of coup determinants

Listed author(s):
  • Martin Gassebner
  • Jerg Gutmann
  • Stefan Voigt

Over the last several decades, both economists and political scientists have shown interest in coups d’état. Numerous studies have been dedicated to understanding the causes of coups. However, model uncertainty still looms large. About one hundred potential determinants of coups have been proposed, but no consensus has emerged on an established baseline model for analyzing coups. We address this problem by testing the sensitivity of inferences to over three million model permutations in an extreme bounds analysis. Overall, we test the robustness of 66 factors proposed in the empirical literature based on a monthly sample of 164 countries that covers the years 1952 to 2011. We find that slow economic growth rates, previous coup experiences, and other forms of political violence to be particularly conducive to inciting coups.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.3929/ethz-a-010698271
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Paper provided by KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich in its series KOF Working papers with number 16-409.

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Length: 42 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2016
Handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:16-409
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  1. Jan- Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2005. "Determinants of long-term growth: New results applying robust estimation and extreme bounds analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 597-617, October.
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  11. Vincenzo Bove & Roberto Nisticò, 2014. "Coups d’état and defense spending: a counterfactual analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 161(3), pages 321-344, December.
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