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Citizens, Autocrats, and Plotters: A Model and New Evidence on Coups D'�tat

  • Alexander Galetovic
  • Ricardo Sanhueza
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    We present a model of coups in autocracies. Assuming that policy choices cannot be observed but are correlated with the short-run performance of the economy we find that: (a) the threat of a coup disciplines autocrats; (b) coups are more likely in recessions; (c) increasing per capita income has an ambiguous effect on the probability of a coup. The implications of the model are consistent with the evidence. On average, one recession in the previous year increases the probability of a coup attempt by 47 percent. By contrast, the effect of the level of per capita income is weak. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2000.

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    Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Economics and Politics.

    Volume (Year): 12 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 2 (07)
    Pages: 183-204

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    Handle: RePEc:bla:ecopol:v:12:y:2000:i:2:p:183-204
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