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Two-settlement Systems for Electricity Markets under Network Uncertainty and Market Power

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  • Rajnish Kamat

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  • Shmuel Oren

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Abstract

We analyze welfare and distributional properties of a two-settlement system consisting of a spot market over a two-node network and a single energy forward contract. We formulate and analyze several models which simulate joint dispatch of energy and transmission resources coordinated by a system operator. The spot market is subject to network uncertainty, which we model as a random capacity derating of an important transmission line. Using a duopoly model, we show that even for small probabilities of congestion (derating), forward trading may be substantially reduced, and the market power mitigating effect of forward markets (as shown in Allaz and Vila 1993) may be nullified to a great extent. There is a spot transmission charge reflecting transportation costs from location of generation to a designated hub whose price is the underlying for the forward contract. This alleviates some of the incentive problems associated with the forward market in which spot-market trading is residual. We find that the reduction in forward trading is due to the segregation of the markets in the constrained state, and the absence of natural incentives for generators to commit to more aggressive behavior in the spot market (the “strategic substitutes” effect). In our analysis, we find that the standard assumption of “no-arbitrage” across forward and spot markets leads to very little contract coverage, even for the case with no congestion. We present an alternative view of the market where limited intertemporal arbitrage enables temporal price discrimination by competing duopolists. In this framework, we assume that all of the demand shows up in the forward market (or that the market is cleared against an accurate forecast of the demand), and the forward price is determined using a “market clearing” condition. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2004

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  • Rajnish Kamat & Shmuel Oren, 2004. "Two-settlement Systems for Electricity Markets under Network Uncertainty and Market Power," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 5-37, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:regeco:v:25:y:2004:i:1:p:5-37
    DOI: 10.1023/B:REGE.0000008653.08554.81
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    2. Boffa, Federico & Pingali, Viswanath & Vannoni, Davide, 2010. "Increasing market interconnection: An analysis of the Italian electricity spot market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 311-322, May.
    3. Hesamzadeh, M.R. & Biggar, D.R. & Bunn, D.W. & Moiseeva, E., 2020. "The impact of generator market power on the electricity hedge market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    4. SMEERS, Yves, 2005. "How well can one measure market power in restructured electricity systems ?," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005050, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    5. MURPHY, Frederic & SMEERS, Yves, 2005. "Forward markets may not decrease market power when capacities are endogenous," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2005028, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    6. Sertaç Oruç & Scott Cunningham, 2014. "Transmission Rights to the Electrical Transmission Grid in the Post Liberalization Era," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 5(4), pages 686-705, December.
    7. Dressler, Luisa, 2016. "Support schemes for renewable electricity in the European Union: Producer strategies and competition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 186-196.
    8. Uday V. Shanbhag & Gerd Infanger & Peter W. Glynn, 2011. "A Complementarity Framework for Forward Contracting Under Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 59(4), pages 810-834, August.
    9. Boffa, Federico & Pingali, Viswanath & Vannoni, Davide, 2010. "Increasing market interconnection: An analysis of the Italian electricity spot market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 311-322, May.
    10. Cristian Zambrano & Yris Olaya, 2017. "An agent-based simulation approach to congestion management for the Colombian electricity market," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 258(2), pages 217-236, November.
    11. Le Coq, Chloe & Orzen, Henrik, 2006. "Do forward markets enhance competition?: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 61(3), pages 415-431, November.
    12. Miguel Vazquez, 2012. "Analysis of the strategic use of forward contracting in electricity markets," RSCAS Working Papers 2012/13, European University Institute.
    13. Javad Khazaei & Golbon Zakeri & Shmuel S. Oren, 2017. "Single and Multisettlement Approaches to Market Clearing Under Demand Uncertainty," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 65(5), pages 1147-1164, October.
    14. Haikel Khalfallah & Vincent Rious, 2013. "A game theoretical analysis of the design options of the real-time electricity market," Post-Print halshs-00816355, HAL.
    15. Ruderer, Dominik & Zöttl, Gregor, 2018. "Transmission pricing and investment incentives," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 14-30.
    16. Desmond Cai & Anish Agarwal & Adam Wierman, 2020. "On the Inefficiency of Forward Markets in Leader–Follower Competition," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 68(1), pages 35-52, January.
    17. Frederic H. Murphy & Yves Smeers, 2005. "Generation Capacity Expansion in Imperfectly Competitive Restructured Electricity Markets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(4), pages 646-661, August.
    18. Frederic Murphy & Yves Smeers, 2010. "On the Impact of Forward Markets on Investments in Oligopolistic Markets with Reference to Electricity," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 58(3), pages 515-528, June.

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