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European natural gas markets: resource constraints and market power

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  • Gijsbert Zwart

Abstract

We analyze long-run scenarios for the European natural gas markets in a model, NATGAS, that explicitly includes both resource constraints and producers’ market power. Europa wordt geconfronteerd met afnemende eigen aardgasvoorraden, met name in de van oudsher grote producenten het Verenigd Koninkrijk en Nederland. De Europese afhankelijkheid van een beperkt aantal grote aardgasleveranciers zal toenemen. Daarmee groeit ook de marktmacht van deze producerende landen. We bekijken de invloed van de beschikbaarheid van vloeibaar aardgas, LNG, op de marktaandelen van producenten en de snelheid van uitputting van Europese voorraden. We bestuderen in het bijzonder hoe in de verschilende scenario's de schaduwprijzen van eindige voorraden de productiebeslissingen beïnvloeden. The European natural gas market is characterized by declining indigenous resources, particularly in the UK and the Netherlands, and a growing dependence on a small number of large exporters who, as a consequence, see their market power increasing. We analyze the impact of conditions on the global LNG market on market shares of pipeline gas suppliers, as well as on the speed of depletion of indigenous European resources. We focus on how shadow prices of resource constraints affect substitution patterns in the various scenarios.

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  • Gijsbert Zwart, 2008. "European natural gas markets: resource constraints and market power," CPB Discussion Paper 116, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpb:discus:116
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    3. Duso, Tomaso & Seldeslachts, Jo & Szucs, Florian, 2019. "The Impact of Competition Policy Enforcement on the Functioning of EU Energy Markets," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 40(01), pages 97-120.
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    5. Kristine Grimsrud & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Halvor B. Storrøsten & Marina Tsygankova, 2016. "Short Run Effects of Bleaker Prospects for Oligopolistic Producers of a Non-renewable Resource," The Energy Journal, , vol. 37(3), pages 293-314, July.
    6. Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2009. "Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025," The Energy Journal, , vol. 30(1_suppl), pages 137-150, June.
    7. Youngho Chang & Dang Thi Quynh Trang & Tsiat Siong Tan & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2021. "Competition and cooperation in the natural gas market: a game-theoretic demand-base analysis," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-49, December.
    8. András Kiss, Adrienn Selei, and Borbála Takácsné Tóth, 2016. "A Top-Down Approach to Evaluating Cross-Border Natural Gas Infrastructure Projects in Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    9. Egging-Bratseth, Ruud & Baltensperger, Tobias & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2020. "Solving oligopolistic equilibrium problems with convex optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 44-52.
    10. Gijsbert Zwart & S. Ikonnikova, 2010. "Reinforcing buyer power: Trade quotas and supply diversification in the EU natural gas market," CPB Discussion Paper 147, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    11. Riepin, Iegor & Schmidt, Matthew & Baringo, Luis & Müsgens, Felix, 2022. "Adaptive robust optimization for European strategic gas infrastructure planning," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 324(C).
    12. Tóth, Borbála Takácsné & Kotek, Péter & Selei, Adrienn, 2020. "Rerouting Europe's gas transit landscape - Effects of Russian natural gas infrastructure strategy on the V4," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Adrienn Selei & Borbála Tóth & Gustav Resch & László Szabó & Lukas Liebmann & Péter Kaderják, 2017. "How far is mitigation of Russian gas dependency possible through energy efficiency and renewable policies assuming different gas market structures?," Energy & Environment, , vol. 28(1-2), pages 54-69, March.
    14. Roberto Cardinale, 2023. "Liberalization and the volatility of gas prices: Exploring their relation in times of abundance and scarcity," Competition and Regulation in Network Industries, , vol. 24(2-3), pages 72-96, June.
    15. Chyong, Chi Kong & Henderson, James, 2024. "Quantifying the economic value of Russian gas in Europe in the aftermath of the 2022 war in Ukraine," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    16. Egging, Ruud & Holz, Franziska & Gabriel, Steven A., 2010. "The World Gas Model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4016-4029.
    17. Veronika Grimm & Julia Grübel & Martin Schmidt & Alexandra Schwartz & Ann-Kathrin Wiertz & Gregor Zöttl, 2025. "On a tractable single-level reformulation of a multilevel model of the European entry-exit gas market with market power," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 91(4), pages 953-985, April.

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    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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