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Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025

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  • Franziska Holz
  • Christian von Hirschhausen
  • Claudia Kemfert

Abstract

We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic severallayer model of European gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate the European imports (~ share of 1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain a feature of the European gas markets, but less than in the current situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2008. "Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 823, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp823
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhöner, Caroline, 2012. "Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 167-175.
    2. Mingjing Guo & Yan Bu & Jinhua Cheng & Ziyu Jiang, 2018. "Natural Gas Security in China: A Simulation of Evolutionary Trajectory and Obstacle Degree Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-18, December.
    3. Youngho Chang & Dang Thi Quynh Trang & Tsiat Siong Tan & Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary, 2021. "Competition and cooperation in the natural gas market: a game-theoretic demand-base analysis," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 21-49, December.
    4. Kristine Grimsrud, Knut Einar Rosendahl, Halvor B. Storrøsten, and Marina Tsygankova, 2016. "Short Run Effects of Bleaker Prospects for Oligopolistic Producers of a Non-renewable Resource," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    5. Brandão, António & Soares, Isabel & Sarmento, Paula & Resende, Joana & Pinho, Joana, 2014. "Regulating international gas transport: Welfare effects of postage stamp and entry–exit systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 86-95.
    6. Dieckhöner, Caroline & Lochner, Stefan & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "European natural gas infrastructure: The impact of market developments on gas flows and physical market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 994-1003.
    7. Kristine Grimsrud, Knut Einar Rosendahl, Halvor B. Storrøsten, and Marina Tsygankova, 2016. "Short Run Effects of Bleaker Prospects for Oligopolistic Producers of a Non-renewable Resource," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    8. Axel M. Wietfeld, 2011. "Understanding Middle East Gas Exporting Behavior," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 203-228.
    9. Jia, Weidong & Gong, Chengzhu & Pan, Kai & Yu, Shiwei, 2023. "Potential changes of regional natural gas market in China amidst liberalization: A mixed complementarity equilibrium simulation in 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    10. Bigerna, Simona & Ceccacci, Francesca & Micheli, Silvia & Polinori, Paolo, 2023. "Between saying and doing for ensuring energy resources supply: The case of Italy in time of crisis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas; Europe; modeling; LNG; supply security;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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