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Civil Unrest in North Africa – Risks for Natural Gas Supply?

Author

Listed:
  • Lochner, Stefan

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Dieckhoener, Caroline

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

Abstract

The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not affected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable.

Suggested Citation

  • Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhoener, Caroline, 2011. "Civil Unrest in North Africa – Risks for Natural Gas Supply?," EWI Working Papers 2011-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2011_001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    7. Tobias Baltensperger & Rudolf M. Fuchslin & Pius Krutli & John Lygeros, 2015. "European Union gas market development," Papers 1512.05343, arXiv.org.
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    15. Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    16. Dastan, Seyit Ali & Selcuk, Orhun, 2016. "Review of the security of supply in Turkish energy markets: Lessons from the winter shortages," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 958-971.
    17. Hamza S. Abdalla Lagili & Aşkın Kiraz & Youssef Kassem & Hüseyin Gökçekuş, 2023. "Wind and Solar Energy for Sustainable Energy Production for Family Farms in Coastal Agricultural Regions of Libya Using Measured and Multiple Satellite Datasets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(18), pages 1-53, September.
    18. Sesini, Marzia & Giarola, Sara & Hawkes, Adam D., 2021. "Strategic natural gas storage coordination among EU member states in response to disruption in the trans Austria gas pipeline: A stochastic approach to solidarity," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C).
    19. Baltensperger, Tobias & Füchslin, Rudolf M. & Krütli, Pius & Lygeros, John, 2017. "European Union gas market development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 466-479.
    20. Vincenzo Bianco, 2018. "The Future of the Italian Electricity Generation Sector. An Analysis of the Possible Strategic Models," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(3), pages 20-28.
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    22. Jan Abrell and Hannes Weigt, 2016. "The Short and Long Term Impact of Europe's Natural Gas Market on Electricity Markets until 2050," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    23. Heng Ye & Zhiping Li & Guangyue Li & Yiran Liu, 2022. "Topology Analysis of Natural Gas Pipeline Networks Based on Complex Network Theory," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas; security of supply; network modelling; North Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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