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Civil Unrest in North Africa – Risks for Natural Gas Supply?


  • Lochner, Stefan

    () (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Dieckhoener, Caroline

    () (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)


The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not affected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable.

Suggested Citation

  • Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhoener, Caroline, 2011. "Civil Unrest in North Africa – Risks for Natural Gas Supply?," EWI Working Papers 2011-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2011_001

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lu, Weiwei & Su, Meirong & Fath, Brian D. & Zhang, Mingqi & Hao, Yan, 2016. "A systematic method of evaluation of the Chinese natural gas supply security," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 858-867.
    2. Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    3. Nick, Sebastian & Thoenes, Stefan, 2014. "What drives natural gas prices? — A structural VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 517-527.
    4. repec:gam:jeners:v:8:y:2015:i:12:p:13710-13725:d:59837 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Christian Growitsch & Harald Hecking & Timo Panke, 2014. "Supply Disruptions and Regional Price Effects in a Spatial Oligopoly—An Application to the Global Gas Market," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 944-975, November.
    6. Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
    7. repec:eee:eneeco:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:520-529 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Dastan, Seyit Ali & Selcuk, Orhun, 2016. "Review of the security of supply in Turkish energy markets: Lessons from the winter shortages," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 958-971.
    9. Jan Abrell & Clemens Gerbaulet & Franziska Holz & Casimir Lorenz & Hannes Weigt, 2013. "Combining Energy Networks: The Impact of Europe's Natural Gas Network on Electricity Markets until 2050," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1317, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Tobias Baltensperger & Rudolf M. Fuchslin & Pius Krutli & John Lygeros, 2015. "European Union gas market development," Papers 1512.05343,
    11. Yeeles, Adam & Akporiaye, Alero, 2016. "Risk and resilience in the Nigerian oil sector: The economic effects of pipeline sabotage and theft," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 187-196.
    12. Mingqi Zhang & Meirong Su & Weiwei Lu & Chunhua Su, 2015. "An Assessment of the Security of China’s Natural Gas Supply System Using Two Network Models," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(12), pages 1-16, December.
    13. repec:eee:eneeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:466-479 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Lilliestam, Johan, 2014. "Vulnerability to terrorist attacks in European electricity decarbonisation scenarios: Comparing renewable electricity imports to gas imports," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 234-248.
    15. repec:aen:journl:ej37-si3-abrell is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Baltensperger, Tobias & Füchslin, Rudolf M. & Krütli, Pius & Lygeros, John, 2016. "Multiplicity of equilibria in conjectural variations models of natural gas markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 252(2), pages 646-656.
    17. Holz, Franziska & Brauers, Hanna & Richter, Philipp M. & Roobeek, Thorsten, 2017. "Shaking Dutch grounds won’t shatter the European gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 520-529.

    More about this item


    Natural gas; security of supply; network modelling; North Africa;

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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