Civil Unrest in North Africa – Risks for Natural Gas Supply?
The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not aﬀected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable.
|Date of creation:||11 Apr 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: ++ 49 (0) 221 277 29 100
Fax: ++ 49 (0) 221 277 29 400
Web page: http://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Claudia Kemfert, 2009.
"Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 137-150.
- Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2008. "Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 823, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
- Weisser, Hellmuth, 2007. "The security of gas supply--a critical issue for Europe?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-5, January.
- Lochner, Stefan, 2011. "Identification of congestion and valuation of transport infrastructures in the European natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2483-2492.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2011_001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Monika Schmid)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.