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Civil Unrest in North Africa – Risks for Natural Gas Supply?

Author

Listed:
  • Lochner, Stefan

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Dieckhoener, Caroline

    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

Abstract

The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not affected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable.

Suggested Citation

  • Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhoener, Caroline, 2011. "Civil Unrest in North Africa – Risks for Natural Gas Supply?," EWI Working Papers 2011-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2011_001
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas; security of supply; network modelling; North Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices

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