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Civil Unrest in North Africa – Risks for Natural Gas Supply?

  • Lochner, Stefan


    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

  • Dieckhoener, Caroline


    (Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln)

The uprising and military confrontation in Libya that began in February 2011 has led to disruptions of gas supplies to Europe. An analysis of how Europe has compensated for these missing gas volumes shows that this situation has not affected security of supply. However, this situation would change if the North African uprising were to spread to Algeria. Since Algeria is a much more important gas supplier to Europe than is Libya, more severe consequences would be likely. Applying a natural gas infrastructure model, we investigate the impact of supplier disruptions from both countries for a summer and winter period. Our analysis shows that disruptions in the low-demand summer months could be compensated for, mainly by LNG imports. An investigation of a similar situation at the beginning of the winter shows that security of supply would be severely compromised and that disruptions to Italian consumers would be unavoidable.

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Paper provided by Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln in its series EWI Working Papers with number 2011-1.

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Length: 8 pages
Date of creation: 11 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:ewikln:2011_001
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  1. Weisser, Hellmuth, 2007. "The security of gas supply--a critical issue for Europe?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-5, January.
  2. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
  3. Lochner, Stefan, 2011. "Identification of congestion and valuation of transport infrastructures in the European natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2483-2492.
  4. Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2008. "Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets until 2025," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 823, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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