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A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions

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  • Monforti, F.
  • Szikszai, A.

Abstract

Europe's dependency on non-EU countries' energy supply is sharply increasing. Recently, sudden supply disruption caused by international disputes outside the EU have created serious problems for some EU countries and raised concern in many others. In these situations, it is highly desirable to have a tool to assess possible outcomes of supply disruptions. This paper presents a newly developed model, MC-GENERCIS, aimed to assess the robustness of the EU transnational gas transmission system during both normal and special operating conditions, including high-demand situations and/or a supply shortage. The model has a country-by-country resolution and examines all possible dispatching choices of national TSOs on the basis of a probabilistic MonteCarlo approach. The preliminary validation of the model through its application to the "normal" conditions for the winter 2008-2009 and to the recent supply disruption involving Ukrainian gas transit is also described.

Suggested Citation

  • Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:38:y:2010:i:5:p:2486-2498
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhöner, Caroline, 2012. "Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 167-175.
    2. Lochner, Stefan, 2011. "Identification of congestion and valuation of transport infrastructures in the European natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2483-2492.
    3. repec:eee:reensy:v:169:y:2018:i:c:p:451-465 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Psarras, John, 2016. "Multicriteria decision support to evaluate potential long-term natural gas supply alternatives: The case of GreeceAuthor-Name: Androulaki, Stella," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 791-810.
    5. Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    6. Shariatkhah, Mohammad-Hossein & Haghifam, Mahmoud-Reza & Chicco, Gianfranco & Parsa-Moghaddam, Mohsen, 2016. "Adequacy modeling and evaluation of multi-carrier energy systems to supply energy services from different infrastructures," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 1095-1106.
    7. repec:eee:appene:v:209:y:2018:i:c:p:489-501 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. dos Santos, Sidney Pereira & Eugenio Leal, José & Oliveira, Fabrício, 2011. "The development of a natural gas transportation logistics management system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4774-4784, September.
    9. Dieckhöner, Caroline & Lochner, Stefan & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "European natural gas infrastructure: The impact of market developments on gas flows and physical market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 994-1003.
    10. Szoplik, Jolanta, 2016. "Improving the natural gas transporting based on the steady state simulation results," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 105-116.
    11. repec:eee:reensy:v:141:y:2015:i:c:p:74-82 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:11:p:1462-1473 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Szikszai, A. & Monforti, F., 2011. "GEMFLOW: A time dependent model to assess responses to natural gas supply crises," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5129-5136, September.

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