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The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe, the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market--Model-based analysis until 2030

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  • Lochner, Stefan
  • Bothe, David

Abstract

Quickly declining natural gas reserves in some parts of the world, increasing demand in today's major gas consuming regions, the emergence of new demand centres and the globalization of natural gas markets caused by the rising importance of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are changing global gas supply structures and will continue to do so over the next decades. Applying a global gas market model, we produce a forecast for global gas supply to 2030 and determine the supplier-specific long-run average costs of gas supplied to three major consuming regions. Results for the three regions are compared and analysed with a focus on costs, supply diversification and the different roles of LNG. We find that while European and Japanese external gas supply will be less diversified in international comparison, gas can be supplied at relatively low costs due to the regions' favourable locations in geographic proximity to large gas producers. The US market's supply structure on the other hand will significantly change from its current situation. The growing dependency on LNG imports from around the world will lead to significantly higher supply costs but will also increase diversification as gas will originate from an increasing number of LNG exporting countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Lochner, Stefan & Bothe, David, 2009. "The development of natural gas supply costs to Europe, the United States and Japan in a globalizing gas market--Model-based analysis until 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 1518-1528, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:4:p:1518-1528
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lochner, Stefan, 2011. "Identification of congestion and valuation of transport infrastructures in the European natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 2483-2492.
    2. van Goor, Harm & Scholtens, Bert, 2014. "Modeling natural gas price volatility: The case of the UK gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 126-134.
    3. Goncharuk, Anatoliy G. & Storto, Corrado lo, 2017. "Challenges and policy implications of gas reform in Italy and Ukraine: Evidence from a benchmarking analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 456-466.
    4. Capece, Guendalina & Cricelli, Livio & Di Pillo, Francesca & Levialdi, Nathan, 2012. "New regulatory policies in Italy: Impact on financial results, on liquidity and profitability of natural gas retail companies," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 90-98.
    5. Steven Brakman & Charles van Marrewijk & Arjen van Witteloostuijn, 2009. "Market Liberalization in the European Natural Gas Market - The Importance of Capacity Constraints and Efficiency Differences," CESifo Working Paper Series 2697, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Mel Devine & James Gleeson & John Kinsella & David Ramsey, 2014. "A Rolling Optimisation Model of the UK Natural Gas Market," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 209-244, June.
    7. Wang-Helmreich, Hanna & Lochner, Stefan, 2011. "Natural Gas in Road Transportation - A Low-emission Bridging Technology?," EWI Working Papers 2011-14, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    8. Dieckhöner, Caroline & Lochner, Stefan & Lindenberger, Dietmar, 2013. "European natural gas infrastructure: The impact of market developments on gas flows and physical market integration," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 994-1003.
    9. Monforti, F. & Szikszai, A., 2010. "A MonteCarlo approach for assessing the adequacy of the European gas transmission system under supply crisis conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 2486-2498, May.
    10. Mahdi Fasihi & Dmitrii Bogdanov & Christian Breyer, 2017. "Long-Term Hydrocarbon Trade Options for the Maghreb Region and Europe—Renewable Energy Based Synthetic Fuels for a Net Zero Emissions World," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(2), pages 1-24, February.
    11. Anatoliy G. Goncharuk, 2014. "Losers and Beneficiaries from the Growth of Natural Gas Prices," Journal of Applied Management and Investments, Department of Business Administration and Corporate Security, International Humanitarian University, vol. 3(2), pages 117-126.

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