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Worldwide cheap and heavy oil productions: A long-term energy model

  • Guseo, Renato

Crude oil, natural gas liquids, heavy oils, deepwater oils, and polar oils are non-renewable energy resources with increasing extraction costs. Two major definitions emerge: regular or 'cheap' oil and non-conventional or 'heavy' oil. Peaking time in conventional oil production has been a recent focus of debate. For two decades, non-conventional oils have been mixed with regular crude oil. Peaking time estimation and the rate at which production may be expected to decline, following the peak, are more difficult to determine. We propose a two-wave model for world oil production pattern and forecasting, based on the diffusion of innovation theories: a sequential multi-Bass model. Historical well-known shocks are confirmed, and new peaking times for crude oil and mixed oil are determined with corresponding depletion rates. In the final section, possible ties between the dynamics of oil extraction and refining capacities are discussed as a predictive symptom of an imminent mixed oil peak in 2016.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
Pages: 5572-5577

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:5572-5577
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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  1. Greene, David L. & Hopson, Janet L. & Li, Jia, 2006. "Have we run out of oil yet? Oil peaking analysis from an optimist's perspective," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(5), pages 515-531, March.
  2. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Samiei, Hossein, 1995. "Forecasting ultimate resource recovery," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 543-555, December.
  3. Frank M. Bass & Trichy V. Krishnan & Dipak C. Jain, 1994. "Why the Bass Model Fits without Decision Variables," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 13(3), pages 203-223.
  4. Kaufmann, Robert K., 1991. "Oil production in the lower 48 states : Reconciling curve fitting and econometric models," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 111-127, April.
  5. Maggio, G. & Cacciola, G., 2009. "A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4761-4770, November.
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