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A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts

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  • Maggio, G.
  • Cacciola, G.

Abstract

In recent years, the economic and political aspects of energy problems have prompted many researchers and analysts to focus their attention on the Hubbert Peak Theory with the aim of forecasting future trends in world oil production. In this paper, a model that attempts to contribute in this regard is presented; it is based on a variant of the well-known Hubbert curve. In addition, the sum of multiple-Hubbert curves (two cycles) is used to provide a better fit for the historical data on oil production (crude and natural gas liquid (NGL)). Taking into consideration three possible scenarios for oil reserves, this approach allowed us to forecast when peak oil production, referring to crude oil and NGL, should occur. In particular, by assuming a range of 2250-3000 gigabarrels (Gb) for ultimately recoverable conventional oil, our predictions foresee a peak between 2009 and 2021 at 29.3-32.1Â Gb/year.

Suggested Citation

  • Maggio, G. & Cacciola, G., 2009. "A variant of the Hubbert curve for world oil production forecasts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4761-4770, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:37:y:2009:i:11:p:4761-4770
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Tiffany L. Fess & James B. Kotcon & Vagner A. Benedito, 2011. "Crop Breeding for Low Input Agriculture: A Sustainable Response to Feed a Growing World Population," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(10), pages 1-31, October.
    3. Verbruggen, Aviel & Al Marchohi, Mohamed, 2010. "Views on peak oil and its relation to climate change policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(10), pages 5572-5581, October.
    4. Guseo, Renato, 2011. "Worldwide cheap and heavy oil productions: A long-term energy model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5572-5577, September.
    5. Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Zhao, Lin & Snowden, Simon & Wang, Xu, 2011. "A comparison of two typical multicyclic models used to forecast the world's conventional oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(12), pages 7616-7621.
    6. Warrilow, David, 2015. "A bumpy road to the top: Statistically defining a peak in oil production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 81-84.
    7. Haugom, Erik & Mydland, Ørjan & Pichler, Alois, 2016. "Long term oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 84-94.
    8. Chavez-Rodriguez, Mauro F. & Szklo, Alexandre & de Lucena, Andre Frossard Pereira, 2015. "Analysis of past and future oil production in Peru under a Hubbert approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 140-151.
    9. Askari, S. & Montazerin, N. & Zarandi, M.H. Fazel, 2015. "Forecasting semi-dynamic response of natural gas networks to nodal gas consumptions using genetic fuzzy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 252-266.
    10. Chapman, Ian, 2014. "The end of Peak Oil? Why this topic is still relevant despite recent denials," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 93-101.
    11. Semenychev, V.K. & Kurkin, E.I. & Semenychev, E.V., 2014. "Modelling and forecasting the trends of life cycle curves in the production of non-renewable resources," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 244-251.
    12. Hu, Yan & Hall, Charles A.S. & Wang, Jianliang & Feng, Lianyong & Poisson, Alexandre, 2013. "Energy Return on Investment (EROI) of China's conventional fossil fuels: Historical and future trends," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 352-364.
    13. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:6:p:1003-:d:101115 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Gallagher, Brian, 2011. "Peak oil analyzed with a logistic function and idealized Hubbert curve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 790-802, February.
    15. Logar, Ivana & van den Bergh, Jeroen C.J.M., 2013. "The impact of peak oil on tourism in Spain: An input–output analysis of price, demand and economy-wide effects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 155-166.
    16. Xu Zhao & Carol A. Dahl & Dongkun Luo, 2015. "How OECD countries subsidize oil and natural gas producers and modeling the consequences: A review with recommendations," Working Papers 2015-03, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    17. Yang, Guangfei & Li, Xianneng & Wang, Jianliang & Lian, Lian & Ma, Tieju, 2015. "Modeling oil production based on symbolic regression," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 48-61.
    18. Hosseini, Seyed Hossein & Shakouri G., Hamed, 2016. "A study on the future of unconventional oil development under different oil price scenarios: A system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 64-74.
    19. Patrick Criqui & Silvana Mima, 2012. "European climate -- energy security nexus: A model based scenario analysis," Post-Print halshs-00661043, HAL.
    20. Soldo, Božidar, 2012. "Forecasting natural gas consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 26-37.

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