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Measuring the Impacts of Nuclear Accidents on Energy Policy

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  • Zsuzsanna Csereklyei

    () (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

This paper examines the history of nuclear energy, safety developments of reactors and nuclear energy policy from the 1950s on. I investigate the effects of nuclear accidents on energy policy with the help of a panel dataset of 31 countries from 1965-2009, using annual data about the capacity of reactors under construction, primary energy consumption, as well as three nuclear accidents scaled INES five or higher by the International Atomic Energy Agency. After determining the extent of the accident impact in the different countries, I find that neither Three Mile Island nor Lucens had a worldwide negative effect on construction starts, while Chernobyl did. The effect of Chernobyl is however shown to wear-off in certain geographical clusters, after ten to thirty years. I find that nuclear capacity enlargement shows a significant persistence, but it was also driven by primary energy consumption in the past five decades. The effects of real interest rates, inflation, or gross domestic product on reactor construction were not found significant. Thus, an accident is likely to have a negative and long lasting impact in the country where it happened, and possibly in countries affected by the direct consequences, or where governments are subject to severe public pressure. It is difficult to estimate the consequences Fukushima is going to have on worldwide power plant constructions, but areas closer to the accident might be affected more negatively and for a longer time. Growing concerns of energy supply security and greenhouse gas emissions may counteract this impact at the legislative level.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsuzsanna Csereklyei, 2013. "Measuring the Impacts of Nuclear Accidents on Energy Policy," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp151, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp151
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Thurner, Paul W. & Bauer, Alexander & Küchenhoff, Helmut, 2016. "The effect of economic growth, oil prices, and the benefits of reactor standardization: Duration of nuclear power plant construction revisited," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 49-59.
    2. Jan Goebel & Christian Krekel & Tim Tiefenbach & Nicolas Ziebarth, 2015. "How natural disasters can affect environmental concerns, risk aversion, and even politics: evidence from Fukushima and three European countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(4), pages 1137-1180, October.
    3. Pfenninger, Stefan & Keirstead, James, 2015. "Comparing concentrating solar and nuclear power as baseload providers using the example of South Africa," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 303-314.
    4. Goebel, Jan & Krekel, Christian & Tiefenbach, Tim & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2013. "Natural Disaster, Policy Action, and Mental Well-Being: The Case of Fukushima," IZA Discussion Papers 7691, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    5. Thurner, Paul W. & Mittermeier, Laura & Küchenhoff, Helmut, 2014. "How long does it take to build a nuclear power plant? A non-parametric event history approach with P-splines," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 163-171.
    6. Anke Kutschke & Alexandra Rese & Daniel Baier, 2016. "The Effects of Locational Factors on the Performance of Innovation Networks in the German Energy Sector," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(12), pages 1-18, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nuclear Energy; Nuclear Accidents; Energy Policy; Panel Regression;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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