Measuring the Impacts of Nuclear Accidents on Energy Policy
This paper examines the history of nuclear energy, safety developments of reactors and nuclear energy policy from the 1950s on. I investigate the effects of nuclear accidents on energy policy with the help of a panel dataset of 31 countries from 1965-2009, using annual data about the capacity of reactors under construction, primary energy consumption, as well as three nuclear accidents scaled INES five or higher by the International Atomic Energy Agency. After determining the extent of the accident impact in the different countries, I find that neither Three Mile Island nor Lucens had a worldwide negative effect on construction starts, while Chernobyl did. The effect of Chernobyl is however shown to wear-off in certain geographical clusters, after ten to thirty years. I find that nuclear capacity enlargement shows a significant persistence, but it was also driven by primary energy consumption in the past five decades. The effects of real interest rates, inflation, or gross domestic product on reactor construction were not found significant. Thus, an accident is likely to have a negative and long lasting impact in the country where it happened, and possibly in countries affected by the direct consequences, or where governments are subject to severe public pressure. It is difficult to estimate the consequences Fukushima is going to have on worldwide power plant constructions, but areas closer to the accident might be affected more negatively and for a longer time. Growing concerns of energy supply security and greenhouse gas emissions may counteract this impact at the legislative level.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Welthandelsplatz 1, 1020 Vienna, Austria|
Web page: http://www.wu.ac.at/economics/en
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Zsuzsanna Csereklyei & Stefan Humer, 2012. "Modelling Primary Energy Consumption under Model Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp147, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
- Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
- Glaser, Alexander, 2011. "After Fukushima: Preparing for a More Uncertain Future of Nuclear Power," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(6), pages 27-35, July.
- Romerio, Franco, 1998. "The risks of the nuclear policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 239-246, February.
- Toth, Ferenc L. & Rogner, Hans-Holger, 2006. "Oil and nuclear power: Past, present, and future," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-25, January.
- Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E. & Menyah, Kojo & Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2010. "On the causal dynamics between emissions, nuclear energy, renewable energy, and economic growth," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(11), pages 2255-2260, September.
- Laes, Erik & Meskens, Gaston & van der Sluijs, Jeroen P., 2011. "On the contribution of external cost calculations to energy system governance: The case of a potential large-scale nuclear accident," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5664-5673, September.
- Hayashi, Masatsugu & Hughes, Larry, 2013. "The Fukushima nuclear accident and its effect on global energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 102-111.
- Reynolds, Douglas B. & Kolodziej, Marek, 2008. "Former Soviet Union oil production and GDP decline: Granger causality and the multi-cycle Hubbert curve," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 271-289, March.
- Hayashi, Masatsugu & Hughes, Larry, 2013. "The policy responses to the Fukushima nuclear accident and their effect on Japanese energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 86-101.
- Kopytko, Natalie & Perkins, John, 2011. "Climate change, nuclear power, and the adaptation-mitigation dilemma," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 318-333, January.
- Goodfellow, Martin J. & Williams, Hugo R. & Azapagic, Adisa, 2011. "Nuclear renaissance, public perception and design criteria: An exploratory review," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6199-6210, October.
- Harding, Jim, 2007. "Economics of Nuclear Power and Proliferation Risks in a Carbon-Constrained World," The Electricity Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(10), pages 65-76, December.
- Burke, Paul J., 2010.
"Income, resources, and electricity mix,"
Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 616-626, May.
- Paul L. Joskow & John E. Parsons, 2012. "The Future of Nuclear Power After Fukushima," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
- Thomas, Steve, 2012. "What will the Fukushima disaster change?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 12-17.
- Mez, Lutz, 2012. "Nuclear energy–Any solution for sustainability and climate protection?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 56-63.
- Pesaran, M.H., 2003.
"A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0346, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- M. Hashem Pesaran, 2007. "A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross-section dependence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 265-312.
- Ahearne, John F., 2011. "Prospects for nuclear energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 572-580, July.
- Davidson, Russell, 2009. "Econometric Theory and Methods: International Edition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195391053, December.
- Felder, Frank A., 2009. "A critical assessment of energy accident studies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5744-5751, December.
- Zhou, Yun & Rengifo, Christhian & Chen, Peipei & Hinze, Jonathan, 2011. "Is China ready for its nuclear expansion?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 771-781, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp151. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Department of Economics)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.