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Modelling Primary Energy Consumption under Model Uncertainty

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  • Zsuzsanna Csereklyei

    () (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Stefan Humer

    () (Department of Economics, Vienna University of Economics and Business)

Abstract

This paper examines the long-term relationship between primary energy consumption and other key macroeconomic variables, including real GDP, labour force, capital stock and technology, using a panel dataset for 64 countries over the period 1965-2009. Deploying panel error correction models, we find that there is a positive relationship running from physical capital, GDP, and population to primary energy consumption. We observe however a negative relationship between total factor productivity and primary energy usage. Significant differences arise in the magnitude of the cointegration coefficients, when we allow for differences in geopolitics and wealth levels. We also argue that inference on the basis of a single model without taking model uncertainty into account can lead to biased conclusions. Consequently, we address this problem by applying simple model averaging techniques to the estimated panel cointegration models. We find that tackling the uncertainty associated with selecting a single model with model averaging techniques leads to a more accurate representation of the link between energy consumption and the other macroeconomic variables, and to a significantly increased out-of-sample forecast performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Zsuzsanna Csereklyei & Stefan Humer, 2012. "Modelling Primary Energy Consumption under Model Uncertainty," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp147, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wiw:wiwwuw:wuwp147
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Stern, David I., 2015. "Global energy use: Decoupling or convergence?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 633-641.
    2. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna, 2014. "Measuring the impact of nuclear accidents on energy policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 121-129.
    3. Csereklyei, Zsuzsanna & Humer, Stefan, 2013. "Projecting Long-Term Primary Energy Consumption," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 3874, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. Rabab Mudakkar, Syeda & Zaman, Khalid & Shakir, Huma & Arif, Mariam & Naseem, Imran & Naz, Lubna, 2013. "Determinants of energy consumption function in SAARC countries: Balancing the odds," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 566-574.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Consumption; Panel Cointegration Models; Model Averaging;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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