IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v124y2017icp350-363.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An integrated model for risk management in electricity trade

Author

Listed:
  • Dagoumas, Athanasios S.
  • Koltsaklis, Nikolasos E.
  • Panapakidis, Ioannis P.

Abstract

This paper presents an integrated model for risk management of electricity traders. It integrates the Unit Commitment (UC) problem, which provides the power generation units' dispatch and the electricity price forecasting of a power system, with artificial neural network (ANN) models, which provide electricity price forecasting of a neighbouring power system by incorporating a clustering algorithm. The integrated model is further extended to estimate the traders' profitability and risk, incorporating risk provisions. The integrated model is applied in bi-directional trading between the Italian and Greek day-ahead electricity markets. The UC and neural network models provide forecasts of the wholesale electricity price in Greece and Italy respectively. The model attributes a confidence level of the price forecasts, depending on the data clustering and the forecasting performance of each model. The integrated model identifies periods with high price margins for trading for each power flow, aligned with a forecasting confidence and a risk level. The integrated model can provide price signals on the profitability of traders and useful insights into the risk of traders.

Suggested Citation

  • Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Koltsaklis, Nikolasos E. & Panapakidis, Ioannis P., 2017. "An integrated model for risk management in electricity trade," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 350-363.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:124:y:2017:i:c:p:350-363
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.064
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544217302384
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2017.02.064?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gianfreda, Angelica & Grossi, Luigi, 2012. "Forecasting Italian electricity zonal prices with exogenous variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2228-2239.
    2. Boroumand, Raphaël Homayoun & Goutte, Stéphane & Porcher, Simon & Porcher, Thomas, 2015. "Hedging strategies in energy markets: The case of electricity retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 503-509.
    3. Boffa, Federico & Pingali, Viswanath & Vannoni, Davide, 2010. "Increasing market interconnection: An analysis of the Italian electricity spot market," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 311-322, May.
    4. Torriti, Jacopo, 2014. "Privatisation and cross-border electricity trade: From internal market to European Supergrid?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 635-640.
    5. Panapakidis, Ioannis P. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2016. "Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 132-151.
    6. Shakouri G., H. & Eghlimi, M. & Manzoor, D., 2009. "Economically optimized electricity trade modeling: Iran-Turkey case," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 472-483, February.
    7. Bruno Bosco & Lucia Parisio & Matteo Pelagatti, 2007. "Deregulated Wholesale Electricity Prices in Italy: An Empirical Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 13(4), pages 415-432, November.
    8. Clò, Stefano & Cataldi, Alessandra & Zoppoli, Pietro, 2015. "The merit-order effect in the Italian power market: The impact of solar and wind generation on national wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 79-88.
    9. repec:kap:iaecre:v:13:y:2007:i:4:p:415-432 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Antweiler, Werner, 2016. "Cross-border trade in electricity," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 42-51.
    11. Petrella, Andrea & Sapio, Alessandro, 2012. "Assessing the impact of forward trading, retail liberalization, and white certificates on the Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 307-317.
    12. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Georgiadis, Michael C., 2015. "A multi-period, multi-regional generation expansion planning model incorporating unit commitment constraints," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 310-331.
    13. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Georgiadis, Michael C. & Papaioannou, George & Dikaiakos, Christos, 2016. "A mid-term, market-based power systems planning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 17-35.
    14. Dyner, Isaac & Larsen, Erik & Franco, Carlos Jaime, 2009. "Games for electricity traders: Understanding risk in a deregulated industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 465-471, February.
    15. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Kopanos, Georgios M. & Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N. & Georgiadis, Michael C., 2014. "A spatial multi-period long-term energy planning model: A case study of the Greek power system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 456-482.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Liyang Tang, 2020. "Application of Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) neural network in macroeconomic forecasting, national goal setting and global competitiveness assessment," Papers 2005.08735, arXiv.org.
    2. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-08 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Bartosz Uniejewski, 2023. "Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging: A new approach to probabilistic forecasting of electricity prices," Papers 2302.00411, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    4. Ehsani, Behdad & Pineau, Pierre-Olivier & Charlin, Laurent, 2024. "Price forecasting in the Ontario electricity market via TriConvGRU hybrid model: Univariate vs. multivariate frameworks," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 359(C).
    5. Zorana Božić & Dušan Dobromirov & Jovana Arsić & Mladen Radišić & Beata Ślusarczyk, 2020. "Power Exchange Prices: Comparison of Volatility in European Markets," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-15, October.
    6. Dagoumas, Athanasios & Polemis, Michael, 2018. "Analysing Carbon Pass-Through Rate Mechanism in the Electricity Sector: Evidence from Greece," MPRA Paper 91067, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Nikolaos Koltsaklis & Athanasios Dagoumas, 2018. "Policy Implications of Power Exchanges on Operational Scheduling: Evaluating EUPHEMIA’s Market Products in Case of Greece," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-26, October.
    8. Athanasios Dagoumas, 2019. "Assessing the Impact of Cybersecurity Attacks on Power Systems," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-23, February.
    9. Ioannis Panapakidis & Nikolaos Asimopoulos & Athanasios Dagoumas & Georgios C. Christoforidis, 2017. "An Improved Fuzzy C-Means Algorithm for the Implementation of Demand Side Management Measures," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-42, September.
    10. Gao, Xiang & Chan, Ka Wing & Xia, Shiwei & Zhou, Bin & Lu, Xi & Xu, Da, 2019. "Risk-constrained offering strategy for a hybrid power plant consisting of wind power producer and electric vehicle aggregator," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 183-191.
    11. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "Incorporating unit commitment aspects to the European electricity markets algorithm: An optimization model for the joint clearing of energy and reserve markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 231(C), pages 235-258.
    12. Panagiotis Adraktas & Athanasios Dagoumas, 2019. "Integration of Electric Vehicles in the Unit Commitment Problem with Uncertain Renewable Electricity Generation," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(2), pages 315-333.
    13. Yang, Haolin & Schell, Kristen R., 2022. "GHTnet: Tri-Branch deep learning network for real-time electricity price forecasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    14. Russo, Marianna & Kraft, Emil & Bertsch, Valentin & Keles, Dogan, 2022. "Short-term risk management of electricity retailers under rising shares of decentralized solar generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    15. Halužan, Marko & Verbič, Miroslav & Zorić, Jelena, 2022. "An integrated model for electricity market coupling simulations: Evidence from the European power market crossroad," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    16. Russo, Marianna & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    17. Nikolaos E. Koltsaklis & Athanasios S. Dagoumas, 2021. "A power system scheduling model with carbon intensity and ramping capacity constraints," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 647-687, March.
    18. Athanasios Dagoumas & Nikolaos Koltsaklis, 2020. "Zonal Pricing in Kazakhstan Power System with a Unit Commitment Model," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 24-36.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Polemis, Michael L., 2017. "An integrated model for assessing electricity retailer’s profitability with demand response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 49-64.
    2. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Nazos, Konstantinos, 2017. "A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1364-1383.
    3. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S., 2018. "State-of-the-art generation expansion planning: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 563-589.
    4. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Panapakidis, Ioannis P., 2017. "Impact of the penetration of renewables on flexibility needs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 360-369.
    5. Tang, Bao-Jun & Li, Ru & Li, Xiao-Yi & Chen, Hao, 2017. "An optimal production planning model of coal-fired power industry in China: Considering the process of closing down inefficient units and developing CCS technologies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 519-530.
    6. Bigerna, Simona & Andrea Bollino, Carlo & Polinori, Paolo, 2015. "Marginal cost and congestion in the Italian electricity market: An indirect estimation approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 445-454.
    7. Simona Bigerna, Carlo Andrea Bollino and Paolo Polinori, 2016. "Market Power and Transmission Congestion in the Italian Electricity Market," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    8. Michael L. Polemis, 2018. "A mixed integer linear programming model to regulate the electricity sector," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 183-208, July.
    9. Sapio, Alessandro, 2019. "Greener, more integrated, and less volatile? A quantile regression analysis of Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 452-469.
    10. Nikolaos E. Koltsaklis & Athanasios S. Dagoumas, 2021. "A power system scheduling model with carbon intensity and ramping capacity constraints," Operational Research, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 647-687, March.
    11. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Georgiadis, Michael C. & Papaioannou, George & Dikaiakos, Christos, 2016. "A mid-term, market-based power systems planning model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 179(C), pages 17-35.
    12. Billé, Anna Gloria & Gianfreda, Angelica & Del Grosso, Filippo & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2023. "Forecasting electricity prices with expert, linear, and nonlinear models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 570-586.
    13. Goudarzi, Arman & Swanson, Andrew G. & Van Coller, John & Siano, Pierluigi, 2017. "Smart real-time scheduling of generating units in an electricity market considering environmental aspects and physical constraints of generators," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 667-696.
    14. Petrella, Andrea & Sapio, Alessandro, 2012. "Assessing the impact of forward trading, retail liberalization, and white certificates on the Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 307-317.
    15. Dranka, Géremi Gilson & Ferreira, Paula & Vaz, A. Ismael F., 2021. "A review of co-optimization approaches for operational and planning problems in the energy sector," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 304(C).
    16. Chen, Hao & Tang, Bao-Jun & Liao, Hua & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2016. "A multi-period power generation planning model incorporating the non-carbon external costs: A case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C), pages 1333-1345.
    17. Mertens, Tim & Poncelet, Kris & Duerinck, Jan & Delarue, Erik, 2020. "Representing cross-border trade of electricity in long-term energy-system optimization models with a limited geographical scope," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    18. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2017. "Forecasting electricity prices through robust nonlinear models," Working Papers 06/2017, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    19. Jha, Amit Prakash & Mahajan, Aarushi & Singh, Sanjay Kumar & Kumar, Piyush, 2022. "Renewable energy proliferation for sustainable development: Role of cross-border electricity trade," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(P1), pages 1189-1199.
    20. Scott, Ian J. & Carvalho, Pedro M.S. & Botterud, Audun & Silva, Carlos A., 2019. "Clustering representative days for power systems generation expansion planning: Capturing the effects of variable renewables and energy storage," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:124:y:2017:i:c:p:350-363. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.