IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jproda/v60y2023i3d10.1007_s11123-023-00688-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The role of social protection in mitigating the effects of rainfall shocks. Evidence from Ethiopia

Author

Listed:
  • Silvio Daidone

    (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)

  • Francisco Pereira Fontes

    (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations)

Abstract

We study how participation in various social protection schemes can mitigate the negative relationship between adverse rainfall shocks and agricultural production, thus acting as a tool for climate change adaptation. We use panel data from Ethiopia, analyzing the influence of these programs on the technical efficiency of smallholder farmers and how these effects on agricultural production change in the presence adverse rainfall shocks. We find heterogeneous effects of social protection. Public works are negatively associated with productive efficiency, especially in the presence of negative shocks. Recipients of free food display higher sales and profits while cash transfers are more neutral to production and positively associated with farming profitability.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvio Daidone & Francisco Pereira Fontes, 2023. "The role of social protection in mitigating the effects of rainfall shocks. Evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 60(3), pages 315-332, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jproda:v:60:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11123-023-00688-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11123-023-00688-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11123-023-00688-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11123-023-00688-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gustavo Anríquez & Silvio Daidone, 2010. "Linkages between the farm and nonfarm sectors at the household level in rural Ghana: a consistent stochastic distance function approach," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 41(1), pages 51-66, January.
    2. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Christopher Udry, 2014. "Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 278-283, May.
    3. Achyuta Adhvaryu & Teresa Molina & Anant Nyshadham & Jorge Tamayo, 2023. "Helping Children Catch Up: Early Life Shocks and the PROGRESA Experiment," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(657), pages 1-22.
    4. Olivier Deschênes & Michael Greenstone, 2007. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 354-385, March.
    5. Nigel Key & Stacy Sneeringer, 2014. "Potential Effects of Climate Change on the Productivity of U.S. Dairies," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1136-1156.
    6. Clément Imbert & John Papp, 2015. "Labor Market Effects of Social Programs: Evidence from India's Employment Guarantee," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 233-263, April.
    7. Prifti Ervin & Estruch Elisenda & Daidone Silvio & Davis Benjamin & Van Ufford Paul & Michelo Stanfeld & Handa Sudhanshu & Seidenfeld David & Tembo Gelson, 2017. "Learning About Labour Impacts of Cash Transfers in Zambia," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 26(4), pages 433-442.
    8. Salvatore Di Falco & Marcella Veronesi & Mahmud Yesuf, 2011. "Does Adaptation to Climate Change Provide Food Security? A Micro-Perspective from Ethiopia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 93(3), pages 825-842.
    9. Ligia Alba Melo-Becerra & Antonio José Orozco-Gallo, 2017. "Technical efficiency for Colombian small crop and livestock farmers: A stochastic metafrontier approach for different production systems," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-16, February.
    10. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    11. John Hoddinott & Guush Berhane & Daniel O. Gilligan & Neha Kumar & Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, 2012. "The Impact of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme and Related Transfers on Agricultural Productivity," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 21(5), pages -786, November.
    12. MaCurdy, Thomas E & Pencavel, John H, 1986. "Testing between Competing Models of Wage and Employment Determination in Unionized Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 3-39, June.
    13. Cliff Huang & Hung-pin Lai, 2012. "Estimation of stochastic frontier models based on multimodel inference," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 273-284, December.
    14. David A. Hennessy, 1998. "The Production Effects of Agricultural Income Support Policies under Uncertainty," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 80(1), pages 46-57.
    15. Amsler, Christine & Prokhorov, Artem & Schmidt, Peter, 2017. "Endogenous environmental variables in stochastic frontier models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 199(2), pages 131-140.
    16. Kumbhakar, Subal C & Ghosh, Soumendra & McGuckin, J Thomas, 1991. "A Generalized Production Frontier Approach for Estimating Determinants of Inefficiency in U.S. Dairy Farms," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 9(3), pages 279-286, July.
    17. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2012. "Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 66-95, July.
    18. Jirong Wang & Gail L. Cramer & Eric J. Wailes, 1996. "Production efficiency of Chinese agriculture: evidence from rural household survey data," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 15(1), pages 17-28, September.
    19. Knippenberg, Erwin & Hoddinott, John F., 2017. "Shocks, social protection, and resilience: Evidence from Ethiopia," ESSP working papers 109, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. de Janvry, Alain & Finan, Frederico & Sadoulet, Elisabeth & Vakis, Renos, 2006. "Can conditional cash transfer programs serve as safety nets in keeping children at school and from working when exposed to shocks?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 349-373, April.
    21. Prifti, Ervin & Daidone, Silvio & Pace, Noemi & Davis, Benjamin, 2019. "Unconditional cash transfers, risk attitudes and modern inputs demand," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 53, pages 100-118.
    22. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2014. "US Food Aid and Civil Conflict," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1630-1666, June.
    23. John Hoddinott & Tseday J. Mekasha, 2020. "Social Protection, Household Size, and Its Determinants: Evidence from Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(10), pages 1818-1837, October.
    24. Alberto Abadie & Susan Athey & Guido W Imbens & Jeffrey M Wooldridge, 2023. "When Should You Adjust Standard Errors for Clustering?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 138(1), pages 1-35.
    25. Sun Ling Wang & Eldon Ball & Richard Nehring & Ryan Williams & Truong Chau, 2018. "Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on US Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection," NBER Chapters, in: Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior, pages 41-75, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    26. Daniel Gilligan & John Hoddinott & Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse, 2009. "The Impact of Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme and its Linkages," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(10), pages 1684-1706.
    27. Federico Belotti & Silvio Daidone & Giuseppe Ilardi & Vincenzo Atella, 2013. "Stochastic frontier analysis using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 13(4), pages 718-758, December.
    28. Ervin Prifti & Silvio Daidone & Noemi Pace & Benjamin Davis, 2020. "Stuck exchange: Can cash transfers push smallholders out of autarky?," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 495-509, July.
    29. Rachel Sabates-Wheeler & Kalle Hirvonen & Jeremy Lind & John Hoddinott, 2022. "Expanding Social Protection Coverage with Humanitarian Aid: Lessons on Targeting and Transfer Values from Ethiopia," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(10), pages 1981-2000, October.
    30. Benjamin Schwab, 2019. "Comparing the Productive Effects of Cash and Food Transfers in a Crisis Setting: Evidence from a Randomised Experiment in Yemen," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(S1), pages 29-54, December.
    31. Taraz, Vis, 2017. "Adaptation to climate change: historical evidence from the Indian monsoon," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(5), pages 517-545, October.
    32. Ryan Boone & Katia Covarrubias & Benjamin Davis & Paul Winters, 2013. "Cash transfer programs and agricultural production: the case of Malawi," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(3), pages 365-378, May.
    33. Kutlu, Levent, 2010. "Battese-coelli estimator with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 79-81, November.
    34. Ravallion, Martin & Wodon, Quentin, 2000. "Does Child Labour Displace Schooling? Evidence on Behavioural Responses to an Enrollment Subsidy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 158-175, March.
    35. Wooldridge, Jeffrey M., 2009. "On estimating firm-level production functions using proxy variables to control for unobservables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 112-114, September.
    36. Kutlu, Levent & Tran, Kien C. & Tsionas, Mike G., 2019. "A time-varying true individual effects model with endogenous regressors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 211(2), pages 539-559.
    37. Wang, Jirong & Cramer, Gail L. & Wailes, Eric J., 1996. "Production efficiency of Chinese agriculture: evidence from rural household survey data," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 17-28, September.
    38. del Ninno, Carlo & Lundberg, Mattias, 2005. "Treading water: The long-term impact of the 1998 flood on nutrition in Bangladesh," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 67-96, March.
    39. Sarah Baird & David McKenzie & Berk Özler, 2018. "The effects of cash transfers on adult labor market outcomes," IZA Journal of Migration and Development, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 8(1), pages 1-20, December.
    40. Mueller, Valerie & Gray, Clark & Handa, Sudhanshu & Seidenfeld, David, 2020. "Do social protection programs foster short-term and long-term migration adaptation strategies?," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 135-158, April.
    41. Silvio Daidone & Benjamin Davis & Sudhanshu Handa & Paul Winters, 2019. "The Household and Individual-Level Productive Impacts of Cash Transfer Programs in Sub-Saharan Africa," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1401-1431.
    42. Meeusen, Wim & van den Broeck, Julien, 1977. "Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-Douglas Production Functions with Composed Error," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 435-444, June.
    43. Mustafa U. Karakaplan & Levent Kutlu, 2017. "Handling Endogeneity in Stochastic Frontier Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 889-901.
    44. Abdulaziz Shehu & Shaufique F. Sidique, 2015. "The Effect of Shocks on Household Consumption in Rural Nigeria," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 49(3), pages 353-364, July-Sepe.
    45. Marc F. Bellemare & Casey J. Wichman, 2020. "Elasticities and the Inverse Hyperbolic Sine Transformation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(1), pages 50-61, February.
    46. Danyelle Branco & José Féres, 2021. "Weather Shocks and Labor Allocation: Evidence from Rural Brazil," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(4), pages 1359-1377, August.
    47. Kefyalew Endale & Alexander Pick & Tassew Woldehanna, 2019. "Financing social protection in Ethiopia: A long-term perspective," OECD Development Policy Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    48. Kalle Hirvonen & John Hoddinott, 2021. "Beneficiary Views on Cash and In-Kind Payments: Evidence from Ethiopia's Productive Safety Net Programme," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 35(2), pages 398-413.
    49. Aigner, Dennis & Lovell, C. A. Knox & Schmidt, Peter, 1977. "Formulation and estimation of stochastic frontier production function models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 21-37, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Badunenko, Oleg & D’Inverno, Giovanna & De Witte, Kristof, 2023. "On distinguishing the direct causal effect of an intervention from its efficiency-enhancing effects," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 310(1), pages 432-447.
    2. Orea, Luis, 2019. "The Econometric Measurement of Firms’ Efficiency," Efficiency Series Papers 2019/02, University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG).
    3. Surender Kumar & Madhu Khanna, 2019. "Temperature and production efficiency growth: empirical evidence," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(1), pages 209-229, September.
    4. Viktoriya Galushko & Samuel Gamtessa, 2022. "Impact of Climate Change on Productivity and Technical Efficiency in Canadian Crop Production," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-21, April.
    5. Ali M. Oumer & Amin Mugera & Michael Burton & Atakelty Hailu, 2022. "Technical efficiency and firm heterogeneity in stochastic frontier models: application to smallholder maize farms in Ethiopia," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 213-241, April.
    6. Zangin Zeebari & Kristofer Månsson & Pär Sjölander & Magnus Söderberg, 2023. "Regularized conditional estimators of unit inefficiency in stochastic frontier analysis, with application to electricity distribution market," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 79-97, February.
    7. Chen, Adam Zhuo & Huffman, Wallace E. & Rozelle, Scott, 2003. "Technical Efficiency of Chinese Grain Production: A Stochastic Production Frontier Approach," 2003 Annual meeting, July 27-30, Montreal, Canada 271497, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Kutlu, Levent, 2018. "A distribution-free stochastic frontier model with endogenous regressors," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 152-154.
    9. Mustafa U. Karakaplan & Levent Kutlu, 2019. "School district consolidation policies: endogenous cost inefficiency and saving reversals," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 1729-1768, May.
    10. Levent Kutlu & Shasha Liu & Robin C. Sickles, 2022. "Cost, Revenue, and Profit Function Estimates," Springer Books, in: Subhash C. Ray & Robert G. Chambers & Subal C. Kumbhakar (ed.), Handbook of Production Economics, chapter 16, pages 641-679, Springer.
    11. Vis Taraz, 2023. "Public works programmes and agricultural risk: Evidence from India," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 67(2), pages 198-223, April.
    12. Eric Njuki & Boris E Bravo-Ureta & Víctor E Cabrera, 2020. "Climatic effects and total factor productivity: econometric evidence for Wisconsin dairy farms," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 47(3), pages 1276-1301.
    13. Hsing-Hsiang Huang & Michael R. Moore, 2018. "Farming under Weather Risk: Adaptation, Moral Hazard, and Selection on Moral Hazard," NBER Chapters, in: Agricultural Productivity and Producer Behavior, pages 77-124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Subal C. Kumbhakar & Christopher F. Parmeter & Valentin Zelenyuk, 2022. "Stochastic Frontier Analysis: Foundations and Advances I," Springer Books, in: Subhash C. Ray & Robert G. Chambers & Subal C. Kumbhakar (ed.), Handbook of Production Economics, chapter 8, pages 331-370, Springer.
    15. Kaixing Huang, 2015. "The Economic Impacts of Global Warming on Agriculture: the Role of Adaptation," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2015-20, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
    16. Yoro Diallo & Sébastien Marchand & Etienne Espagne, 2019. "Impacts of extreme events on technical efficiency in Vietnamese agriculture," CIRED Working Papers halshs-02080285, HAL.
    17. Centorrino, Samuele & Pérez-Urdiales, María, 2023. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic frontier models with endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 234(1), pages 82-105.
    18. Costa, Lucas & Sant'Anna, André Albuquerque & Young, Carlos Eduardo Frickmann, 2023. "Barren lives: drought shocks and agricultural vulnerability in the Brazilian Semi-Arid," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(6), pages 603-623, December.
    19. Etienne ESPAGNE & Yoro DIALLO & Sébastien MARCHAND, 2019. "Impacts of Extreme Climate Events on Technical Efficiency in Vietnamese Agriculture," Working Paper c1221ee7-5311-4af0-b1b4-3, Agence française de développement.
    20. Afridi, Farzana & Mahajan, Kanika & Sangwan, Nikita, 2022. "The gendered effects of droughts: Production shocks and labor response in agriculture," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:jproda:v:60:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11123-023-00688-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.