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Measuring Weather Impact on Crop Yield Using Aridity Index: Evidence from Odisha


  • Paltasingh, Kirtti Ranjan
  • Goyari, Phanindra
  • Mishra, R.K.


Rainfall and temperature are the two important weather factors that affect crop yields due to their direct and indirect influences on agricultural practices. This study has negated the method of direct use of meteorological factors (either monthly or seasonal), in multiple regression analysis to measure weather impact on crop yield where rainfall and temperature are incorporated in the model as increasing monotonic functions of yield. With evidences from Odisha, where agriculture is rainfed and weather-dependent, the study has advocated the incorporation of ‘aridity index’ variable in the regression model. The use of composite aridity index variable in econometric model has made the analysis more easy and logical. More importantly, the use of aridity index saves the ‘degrees of freedom’ which is very crucial in econometric analysis. In addition, the ambiguity of using the linear trend to proxy for technological progress is taken care of adequately by using cubic function of time. The testing of hypothesis of changing rainfall dependency has established the fact that the dependence of agriculture on rainfall in Odisha has declined slightly possibly because of the developments in irrigation and other facilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Paltasingh, Kirtti Ranjan & Goyari, Phanindra & Mishra, R.K., 2012. "Measuring Weather Impact on Crop Yield Using Aridity Index: Evidence from Odisha," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 25(2).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aerrae:137373

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Bin Zhang & Colin A. Carter, 1997. "Reforms, the Weather, and Productivity Growth in China's Grain Sector," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 79(4), pages 1266-1277.
    2. Oulton,Nicholas & O'Mahony,Mary, 1994. "Productivity and Growth," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521453455, March.
    3. Kumar, Shalander & Raju, B.M.K. & Rao, C.A. Rama & Kareemulla, K. & Venkateswarlu, B., 2011. "Sensitivity of Yields of Major Rainfed Crops to Climate in India," Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Indian Society of Agricultural Economics, vol. 66(3).
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    Cited by:

    1. Paltasingh, Kirtti Ranjan & Goyari, Phanindra, 2013. "Analyzing Growth and Instability in Subsistence Agriculture of Odisha: Evidence from Major Crops," Agricultural Economics Research Review, Agricultural Economics Research Association (India), vol. 26(2013).
    2. G. Sridevi & A. Jyotishi & S. Mahapatra & G. Jagadeesh & S. Bedamatta, 2014. "Climate Change Vulnerability in Agriculture Sector: Indexing and Mapping of Four Southern Indian States," Working Papers wp966, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    3. Yi, Fujin & Jiang, Fei & Zhong, Funing & Ding, Aijun & Zhou, Xun, 2015. "Impacts of Surface Ozone Pollution on Crop Productivity: Evidence from Winter Wheat in China," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211866, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    4. repec:nbr:nberch:13944 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sun Ling Wang & Eldon Ball & Richard Nehring & Ryan Williams & Truong Chau, 2017. "Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity: Evidence and Projection," NBER Chapters,in: Understanding Productivity Growth in Agriculture National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Wang, Sun Ling & Ball, Eldon & Nehring, Richard & Williams, Ryan & Chau, Truong, 2014. "Impacts of Climate Change and Extreme Weather on U.S. Agricultural Productivity Growth," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 177170, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Ranjan Paltasingh, Kirtti & Goyari, Phanindra, 2013. "Supply Response in Rainfed Agriculture of Odisha, Eastern India: A Vector Error Correction Approach," Agricultural Economics Review, Greek Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 14(2), June.

    More about this item


    Agriculture; weather; regression; modelling; aridity index; Agricultural and Food Policy; Q18; C51;

    JEL classification:

    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation


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