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Climate Change, Heat Stress, and U.S. Dairy Production

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  • Key, Nigel D.
  • Sneeringer, Stacy
  • Marquardt, David

Abstract

In the United States, climate change is likely to increase average daily temperatures and the frequency of heat waves, which can reduce meat and milk production in animals. Methods that livestock producers use to mitigate thermal stress—including modifications to animal management or housing—tend to increase production costs and capital expenditures. Dairy cows are particularly sensitive to heat stress, and the dairy sector has been estimated to bear over half of the costs of current heat stress to the livestock industry. In this report, we use operation-level economic data coupled with finely scaled climate data to estimate how the local thermal environment affects U.S. dairies’ effectiveness at producing outputs with a given level of inputs. We use this information to estimate the potential decline in milk production in 2030 resulting from climate change-induced heat stress. For four climate model scenarios, the results indicate modest heat stress-related production declines over the next 20 years, with the largest declines occurring in the South.

Suggested Citation

  • Key, Nigel D. & Sneeringer, Stacy & Marquardt, David, 2014. "Climate Change, Heat Stress, and U.S. Dairy Production," Economic Research Report 186731, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:uersrr:186731
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.186731
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Njuki, Eric, 2022. "Sources, Trends, and Drivers of U.S. Dairy Productivity and Efficiency," Economic Research Report 320329, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    2. Laura C. Bowling & Keith A. Cherkauer & Charlotte I. Lee & Janna L. Beckerman & Sylvie Brouder & Jonathan R. Buzan & Otto C. Doering & Jeffrey S. Dukes & Paul D. Ebner & Jane R. Frankenberger & Benjam, 2020. "Agricultural impacts of climate change in Indiana and potential adaptations," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(4), pages 2005-2027, December.
    3. Veltman, Karin & Rotz, C. Alan & Chase, Larry & Cooper, Joyce & Forest, Chris E. & Ingraham, Peter A. & Izaurralde, R. César & Jones, Curtis D. & Nicholas, Robert E. & Ruark, Matthew D. & Salas, Willi, 2021. "Assessing and reducing the environmental impact of dairy production systems in the northern US in a changing climate," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    4. Tugba Gurler & Theo Elmer & Yuanlong Cui & Siddig Omer & Saffa Riffat, 2018. "Experimental investigation of a novel PVt/heat pump system for energy-efficient poultry houses," International Journal of Low-Carbon Technologies, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(4), pages 404-413.
    5. Tatyana Deryugina & Solomon M. Hsiang, 2014. "Does the Environment Still Matter? Daily Temperature and Income in the United States," NBER Working Papers 20750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. José Henrique Dominguez & Matheus Gomes lopes & Fabrício Amadori Machado & Ederson dos Santos & Fernanda Lopes & Josiane de Oliveira Feijó & Cássio Cassal Brauner & Viviane Rohrig Rabassa & Marcio, 2020. "Body Temperature and Reproductive Performance of Beef Heifers Supplemented With Rumen-Protected Methionine," Journal of Agricultural Studies, Macrothink Institute, vol. 8(3), pages 601-615, September.
    7. repec:ags:aaea22:335579 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Yousefi-Sahzabi, Amin & Unlu-Yucesoy, Eda & Sasaki, Kyuro & Yuosefi, Hossein & Widiatmojo, Arif & Sugai, Yuichi, 2017. "Turkish challenges for low-carbon society: Current status, government policies and social acceptance," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 68(P1), pages 596-608.
    9. Neumann James E. & Strzepek Kenneth, 2014. "State of the literature on the economic impacts of climate change in the United States," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 5(3), pages 411-443, December.
    10. Hutchins, Jared & Skidmore, Marin & Nolan, Derek, 2025. "Vulnerability of US dairy farms to extreme heat," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    11. Denis Nadolnyak & Valentina Hartarska & Bretford Griffin, 2019. "The Impacts of Economic, Demographic, and Weather Factors on the Exit of Beginning Farmers in the United States," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(16), pages 1-17, August.
    12. Jean L. Steiner & David D. Briske & David P. Brown & Caitlin M. Rottler, 2018. "Vulnerability of Southern Plains agriculture to climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 146(1), pages 201-218, January.

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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Livestock Production/Industries;

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