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An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability

Author

Listed:
  • Murat Isik
  • Stephen Devadoss

Abstract

This paper develops an econometric model of stochastic production functions to quantify the impacts of climatic variables on the mean, variance, and covariance of crop yields. The estimates of the production function parameters and their elasticities are utilized to analyse the impacts of the projected climate change on agriculture. The results show that the climate change will have modest effects on the mean crop yields, but will significantly reduce the variance and covariance for most of the crops considered. The results have implications for allocations of agricultural land among crops and for crop production mix.

Suggested Citation

  • Murat Isik & Stephen Devadoss, 2006. "An analysis of the impact of climate change on crop yields and yield variability," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 835-844.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:7:p:835-844
    DOI: 10.1080/00036840500193682
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Reimer, Jeffrey J. & Li, Man, 2009. "Yield Variability and Agricultural Trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 38(02), pages 258-270, October.
    2. M. MEHEDI HASAN & Md. ABDUR RASHID SARKER & JEFF GOW, 2016. "Assessment Of Climate Change Impacts On Aman And Boro Rice Yields In Bangladesh," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(03), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Jones, Jason P.H. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2016. "Impacts of U.S. Production-Dependent Ethanol Policy on Agricultural Markets," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 236258, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Parcell, Joseph L. & Cain, Jewelwayne S., 2013. "Drought Tolerance of Soybean Crops in Missouri," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142507, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    5. Agabriel, Jacques & Lherm, Michel & Mosnier, Claire & Reynaud, Arnaud & Thomas, Alban, 2009. "Estimating a Production Function under Production and Output Price Risks: An Application to Beef Cattle in France," TSE Working Papers 09-046, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Malcolm, Scott A. & Marshall, Elizabeth P. & Aillery, Marcel P. & Heisey, Paul W. & Livingston, Michael J. & Day-Rubenstein, Kelly A., 2012. "Regional Economic and Environmental Impacts of Agricultural Adaptation to a Changing Climate in the United States," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124674, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Ragnar Tveteras & Ola Flaten & Gudbrand Lien, 2011. "Production risk in multi-output industries: estimates from Norwegian dairy farms," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(28), pages 4403-4414.
    8. McCarl, Bruce A. & Attavanich, Witsanu & Musumba, Mark & Mu, Jianhong E. & Aisabokhae, Ruth, 2011. "Land Use and Climate Change," MPRA Paper 83993, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2014.
    9. Robert Finger & Stéphanie Schmid, 2008. "Modeling agricultural production risk and the adaptation to climate change," Agricultural Finance Review, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 68(1), pages 25-41, May.
    10. Jin Zhao & Xiaoguang Yang & Zhijuan Liu & Shuo Lv & Jing Wang & Shuwei Dai, 2016. "Variations in the potential climatic suitability distribution patterns and grain yields for spring maize in Northeast China under climate change," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 137(1), pages 29-42, July.
    11. Jesse Tack & Ardian Harri & Keith Coble, 2012. "More than Mean Effects: Modeling the Effect of Climate on the Higher Order Moments of Crop Yields," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1037-1054.
    12. Barnwal, Prabhat & Kotani, Koji, 2013. "Climatic impacts across agricultural crop yield distributions: An application of quantile regression on rice crops in Andhra Pradesh, India," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 95-109.
    13. Meng, Ting & Carew, Richard C. & Florkowski, Wojciech J. & Klepacka, Anna M., 2016. "Modeling Temperature and Precipitation Influences on Yield Distributions of Canola and Spring Wheat in Saskatchewan," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235251, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    14. Kelbore, Zerihun Getachew, 2012. "An Analysis of the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Yield Variability in Ethiopia," MPRA Paper 49466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Raju Mandal & Hiranya Nath, 2017. "Climate Change and indian Agriculture: Impacts on Crop Yield," Working Papers 1705, Sam Houston State University, Department of Economics and International Business.
    16. Joshi, Niraj Prakash & Maharjan, Keshav Lall & Piya, Luni, 2011. "Effect of climate variables on yield of major food-crops in Nepal -A time-series analysis-," MPRA Paper 35379, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Niklaus Lehmann, 2011. "Regional Crop Modeling: How Future Climate May Impact Crop Yields in Switzerland," Journal of Socio-Economics in Agriculture (Until 2015: Yearbook of Socioeconomics in Agriculture), Swiss Society for Agricultural Economics and Rural Sociology, vol. 4(1), pages 269-291.
    18. Attavanich, Witsanu & McCarl, Bruce A. & Fuller, Stephen W. & Vedenov, Dmitry V. & Ahmedov, Zafarbek, 2011. "The Effect of Climate Change on Transportation Flows and Inland Waterways Due to Climate-Induced Shifts in Crop Production Patterns," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 109241, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Sarker, Md. Abdur Rashid & Alam, Khorshed & Gow, Jeff, 2012. "Exploring the relationship between climate change and rice yield in Bangladesh: An analysis of time series data," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 11-16.
    20. Roibás, David & Wall, Alan & Pérez, José A., 2014. "The influence of meteorological conditions on dairy production," Efficiency Series Papers 2014/02, University of Oviedo, Department of Economics, Oviedo Efficiency Group (OEG).
    21. repec:spr:masfgc:v:22:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s11027-016-9705-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. V. Saravanakumar, "undated". "Impact of Climate Change on Yield of Major Food Crops in Tamil Nadu, India," Working papers 91, The South Asian Network for Development and Environmental Economics.
    23. Afzal, Muhammad & Ahmed, Tanvir & Ahmed, Gulzar, 2016. "Empirical Assessment of Climate Change on Major Agricultural Crops of Punjab, Pakistan," MPRA Paper 70958, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Jan 2016.

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