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Cobwebs, Rational Expectations and Futures Markets

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  • Stein, Jerome L

Abstract

In the absence of futures markets, cobweb cycles and other behavior inconsistent with Muth rational expectations persist for long periods of time. When futures markets are introduced in commodities, these markets behave in a manner much more consistent with Muth rational expectations. By contrast, despite the existence of active forward and futures markets, the Muth rational expectations hypothesis is rejected in the financial and foreign exchange markets. The aim of this paper is to suggest an explanation of how futures markets change the structure of the supply response. Copyright 1992 by MIT Press.

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  • Stein, Jerome L, 1992. "Cobwebs, Rational Expectations and Futures Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 127-134, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:74:y:1992:i:1:p:127-34
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    Cited by:

    1. Christoph Engel & Hanjo Hamann, 2012. "The Hog-Cycle of Law Professors," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_08, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    2. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1998. "The economics of global environmental risk," MPRA Paper 8812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jacks, David S., 2007. "Populists versus theorists: Futures markets and the volatility of prices," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 342-362, April.
    4. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    5. A. G. Malliaris & Jerome L. Stein, 2005. "Methodological issues in asset pricing: Random walk or chaotic dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays, chapter 8, pages 85-115 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

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