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Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?

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  • S. Wong
  • C. Yiu
  • M. Tse
  • K. Chau

Abstract

We examine the effect of forward sale (pre-sale) activities on the volatility of spot prices in the real estate market. The abundance of pre-sales data and major changes in regulatory control on the pre-sale market during the 90's in Hong Kong allow us to undertake empirical tests using Hong Kong's real estate data. Our results show that the volatility of spot prices increased significantly after forward sales were severely dampened by regulatory control measures introduced in 1994, but decreased again when the measures were partly relaxed in 1998. The results contribute to the long lasting debate on whether the introduction of a futures market reduces the volatility of spot prices. Previous studies were mainly conducted in markets with low transaction costs, notably financial markets. By utilizing the unique regulatory changes in the pre-sale market of Hong Kong, we are able to conduct an experiment on the conditional volatility of spot prices in a high information-cost environment, thereby shedding light on the important role of forward housing contracts in providing price expectation information for spot trading. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2006

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  • S. Wong & C. Yiu & M. Tse & K. Chau, 2006. "Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 289-304, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrefec:v:32:y:2006:i:3:p:289-304
    DOI: 10.1007/s11146-006-6803-x
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    Cited by:

    1. Gang-Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Seow Ong, 2012. "Optimal Portfolio Choices, House Risk Hedging and the Pricing of Forward House Transactions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, June.
    2. Edward C. H. Tang, 2021. "Speculate a lot," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 91-109, February.
    3. Lawrence W C Lai & Kwong Wing Chau & Daniel C W Ho & Veronica Y Y Lin, 2006. "Impact of Political Incidents, Financial Crises, and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome on Hong Kong Property Buyers," Environment and Planning B, , vol. 33(3), pages 413-433, June.
    4. K. Chau & S. Wong & C. Yiu, 2007. "Housing Quality in the Forward Contracts Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 313-325, April.
    5. Ling-Hin Li & Siu Kei Kelvin Wong & Ka Shing Cheung, 2016. "Land supply and housing prices in Hong Kong: The political economy of urban land policy," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 34(5), pages 981-998, August.
    6. Arzu Uluc, 2018. "Stabilising House Prices: the Role of Housing Futures Trading," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 587-621, May.
    7. C. Yiu & S. Wong & K. Chau, 2009. "Transaction Volume and Price Dispersion in the Presale and Spot Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 241-253, April.
    8. Maurice Tse & Frederik Pretorius & K. Chau, 2011. "Market Sentiments, Winner’s Curse and Bidding Outcome in Land Auctions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 247-274, April.
    9. Sherry Zhefang ZHOU & Helen Xiaohui BAO, 2009. "Modelling Price Dynamics In The Hong Kong Property Market," Theoretical and Empirical Researches in Urban Management, Research Centre in Public Administration and Public Services, Bucharest, Romania, vol. 4(1S), pages 8-26, April.
    10. S. Wong & K. Chau & C. Yiu, 2007. "Volatility Transmission in the Real Estate Spot and Forward Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 281-293, October.
    11. Gaetano Lisi, 2011. "Price Dispersion in the Housing Market: The Role of Bargaining and Search Costs," Working Papers hal-00628323, HAL.
    12. Chien-Wen Peng & I-Chun Tsai & Wey-Wen Wu, 2011. "Price and Volume Relationship under Housing Presale System," ERES eres2011_106, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    13. Chyi Lee & Simon Stevenson & Ming-Long Lee, 2014. "Futures Trading, Spot Price Volatility and Market Efficiency: Evidence from European Real Estate Securities Futures," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 299-322, February.
    14. Yongheng Deng & Peng Liu, 2009. "Mortgage Prepayment and Default Behavior with Embedded Forward Contract Risks in China’s Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 214-240, April.
    15. L. Li & K. W. Chau, 2019. "What Motivates a Developer to Sell before Completion?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 59(2), pages 209-232, August.
    16. Su Han Chan & Fang Fang & Jing Yang, 2008. "Presales, Financing Constraints and Developers?Production Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(3), pages 345-376.
    17. Chyi Lin Lee, 2009. "Housing price volatility and its determinants," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 2(3), pages 293-308, August.
    18. Deng, Kuang Kuang & Wong, Siu Kei & Cheung, Ka Shing & Tse, Kwok Sang, 2022. "Do real estate investors trade on momentum?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    19. Joseph T. L. Ooi & Thao T. T. Le, 2012. "New Supply and Price Dynamics in the Singapore Housing Market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(7), pages 1435-1451, May.
    20. Shizhen Wang & David Hartzell, 2021. "Real Estate Return in Hong Kong and its Determinants: A Dynamic Gordon Growth Model Analysis," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 24(1), pages 113-138.
    21. Su Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2012. "Presale Contract and its Embedded Default and Abandonment Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 116-152, January.
    22. Quan Gan & Maggie Rong Hu & Wayne Xinwei Wan, 2022. "Contract rescission in the real estate presale market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1054-1106, December.
    23. Lisi, Gaetano, 2011. "Price dispersion in the housing market: the role of bargaining and search costs," MPRA Paper 33863, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Monkkonen, Paavo & Wong, Kelvin & Begley, Jaclene, 2012. "Economic restructuring, urban growth, and short-term trading: The spatial dynamics of the Hong Kong housing market, 1992–2008," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 396-406.
    25. Wong, Siu Kei & Cheung, Ka Shing & Deng, Kuang Kuang & Chau, Kwong Wing, 2021. "Policy responses to an overheated housing market: Credit tightening versus transaction taxes," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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