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Sale before Completion of Development: Pricing and Strategy

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  • Rose Neng Lai
  • Ko Wang
  • Yuqing Zhou

Abstract

The paper examines the risk-and-return characteristics of a popular development strategy, the presale system (or sale before completion), used in many Asian cities. We model a presale decision in a real-options framework and suggest that the use of presale is primarily for a risk-sharing purpose. That is, developers can reduce bankruptcy and marketing risks by selling (or leasing) their projects before their completion dates. Our model also indicates that, because of the presale system, there is a barrier for new developers to enter into a market, which helps explain the anecdotal observation that most real estate markets in Asian cities are oligopolistic in nature and dominated by large developers. Copyright 2004 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association

Suggested Citation

  • Rose Neng Lai & Ko Wang & Yuqing Zhou, 2004. "Sale before Completion of Development: Pricing and Strategy," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(2), pages 329-357, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:32:y:2004:i:2:p:329-357
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    Cited by:

    1. Gang-Zhi Fan & Ming Pu & Seow Ong, 2012. "Optimal Portfolio Choices, House Risk Hedging and the Pricing of Forward House Transactions," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 3-29, June.
    2. Lewis Evans & Graeme Guthrie & Neil Quigley, 2012. "Contemporary Microeconomic Foundations for the Structure and Management of the Public Sector," Treasury Working Paper Series 12/01, New Zealand Treasury.
    3. K. Chau & S. Wong & C. Yiu, 2007. "Housing Quality in the Forward Contracts Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 313-325, April.
    4. Ooi, Joseph T.L. & Le, Thao T.T., 2013. "The spillover effects of infill developments on local housing prices," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 850-861.
    5. Leung, Charles, 2004. "Macroeconomics and housing: a review of the literature," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 249-267, December.
    6. Jin Choi & Henning Rasmussen & Matt Davison, 2012. "Fair Value and Risk Profile for Presale Contracts of Condominiums," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(4), pages 472-504, May.
    7. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2011. "A Rational Explanation for Boom-and-Bust Price Patterns in Real Estate Markets," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 257-282.
    8. S. Wong & C. Yiu & M. Tse & K. Chau, 2006. "Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 289-304, May.
    9. Richard Buttimer & Steven Clark & Steven Ott, 2008. "Land Development: Risk, Return and Risk Management," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(1), pages 81-102, January.
    10. Ɓaszek, Jacek & Olszewski, Krzysztof, 2014. "The behaviour of housing developers and aggregate housing supply," MPRA Paper 60478, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Mei, Wanxia & Du, Li & Niu, Baozhuang & Wang, Jincheng & Feng, Jiejian, 2016. "The effects of an undisclosed regular price and a positive leadtime in a presale mechanism," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 250(3), pages 1013-1025.
    12. Henry Munneke & Joseph Ooi & C. Sirmans & Geoffrey Turnbull, 2015. "Real Estate Agents, House Prices, and Liquidity," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
    13. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Chow, Kenneth & Yiu, Matthew & Tam, Dickson, 2010. "House Market in Chinese Cities: Dynamic Modeling, In-Sampling Fitting and Out-of-Sample Forecasting," MPRA Paper 27367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Robert A. Simons & Ron Throupe, 2012. "Debundling Property Rights for Contaminated Properties: Valuing the Opportunity Cost of the Right to Sell, Using Cumulative Options," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 15(2), pages 231-252.
    15. Su Han Chan & Fang Fang & Jing Yang, 2008. "Presales, Financing Constraints and Developers?Production Decisions," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 30(3), pages 345-376.
    16. Abel Cadenillas & Robert Elliott & Hong Miao & Zhenyu Wu, 2009. "Risk-Hedging in Real Estate Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 16(4), pages 265-285, December.
    17. Anily, Shoshana & Hassin, Refael, 2013. "Pricing, replenishment, and timing of selling in a market with heterogeneous customers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 672-682.
    18. Su Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2012. "Presale Contract and its Embedded Default and Abandonment Options," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 116-152, January.
    19. Robert Edelstein & Peng Liu & Fang Wu, 2012. "The Market for Real Estate Presales: A Theoretical Approach," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 30-48, June.
    20. Su Han Chan & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2016. "The Pricing of Construction Loans," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 19(4), pages 411-434.
    21. Ming-Cheng WU & I-Cheng LIN & Yi-Ting HUANG & Chang-Rong, 2015. "Forecasting Prices Of Presale Houses: A Real Option Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 143-158, March.

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