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A Dynamic Analysis Of The Effects Of A Price Support Program On Price Dynamics And Price Volatility

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  • Kim, Kwansoo
  • Chavas, Jean-Paul

Abstract

This study presents an econometric analysis of the effects of a government price support program on price dynamics and price volatility. Price support programs, a common feature of agricultural policy, provide a lower-bound censoring of the distribution of market prices. An econometric model of market prices is developed using a dynamic Tobit specification under time-varying volatility. The model is applied to the U.S. non-fat dry milk market. It is used to investigate the impact of market liberalization on price dynamics and price volatility in the presence of private and public stocks. The econometric results show how the price support program and stocks (both private and public) affect expected price volatility.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Kwansoo & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis Of The Effects Of A Price Support Program On Price Dynamics And Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 1-20, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:jlaare:31133
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.31133
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    3. Carl GAIGNÉ & Cathie LAROCHE DUPRAZ & Alan MATTHEWS, 2015. "Thirty years of European research on international trade in food and agricultural products," Review of Agricultural and Environmental Studies - Revue d'Etudes en Agriculture et Environnement, INRA Department of Economics, vol. 96(1), pages 91-130.
    4. Jingdong Li & Qingning Lin, 2022. "Can the Adjustment of China’s Grain Purchase and Storage Policy Improve Its Green Productivity?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(10), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Wu, Feng & Guan, Zhengfei & Suh, Dong Hee, 2017. "The Effects of Tomato Suspension Agreements on Market Price Dynamics," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258224, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Teresa Serra & José M. Gil, 2013. "Price volatility in food markets: can stock building mitigate price fluctuations?," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Oxford University Press and the European Agricultural and Applied Economics Publications Foundation, vol. 40(3), pages 507-528, July.
    7. Min Su & Nico Heerink & Peter Oosterveer & Tao Tan & Shuyi Feng, 2021. "Impacts of China’s Minimum Grain Procurement Price Program on Agrochemical Use: A Household-Level Analysis," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-20, September.
    8. No, Sung Chul & Salassi, Michael E., 2006. "Dynamic Analysis and Forecasts of Rough Rice Price under Government Price Support Program: An Application of Bayesian VAR," 2006 Annual Meeting, February 5-8, 2006, Orlando, Florida 35279, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Jian Chen & Xiaohui Tian & Jialing Yu, 2024. "How a price‐support policy can hurt the environment: Empirical evidence from Northeast China," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 72(2), pages 131-148, June.
    10. Genjin Sun & Yanxiu Liu & Yurong Zhu, 2024. "Target price policy and rural household income: Evidence from China," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 70(5), pages 226-243.
    11. Gutierrez, L. & Piras, F., 2013. "A Global Wheat Market Model (GLOWMM) for the Analysis of Wheat Export Prices," 2013 Second Congress, June 6-7, 2013, Parma, Italy 149760, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    12. Ashutosh K. Tripathi, 2024. "Price support policy and market price dynamics: The case of Indian wheat," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(2), pages 412-427, March.
    13. Jingdong Li & Weidong Liu & Zhouying Song, 2020. "Sustainability of the Adjustment Schemes in China’s Grain Price Support Policy—An Empirical Analysis Based on the Partial Equilibrium Model of Wheat," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    14. Du, Xiaodong & Dong, Fengxia, 2014. "Heterogeneous Responses to Market Information and The Impact on Price Volatility and Trading Volume: The Case of Class III Milk Futures," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169769, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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