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Food Price Variability and Economic Reform: An ARCH Approach for Ghana

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  • Gerald E. Shively

Abstract

Changes in maize price levels and variability in Ghana are investigated. A model of wholesale price determination is reviewed in which grain stocks are held for speculative storage as well as export to neighboring countries in the Sahel. To test the model, an Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroskedastic (ARCH) regression is applied to monthly maize data for two markets over the period 1978–93. The regression is used to measure changes in maize price volatility in Ghana, and to infer the importance of past prices, domestic and regional production, and commodity storage and trade in explaining these changes. Copyright 1996, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerald E. Shively, 1996. "Food Price Variability and Economic Reform: An ARCH Approach for Ghana," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(1), pages 126-136.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ajagec:v:78:y:1996:i:1:p:126-136
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/1243784
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    Cited by:

    1. Shively, Gerald E., 2001. "Price thresholds, price volatility, and the private costs of investment in a developing country grain market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 399-414, August.
    2. Marcel Fafchamps & Ruth Vargas Hill, 2008. "Price Transmission and Trader Entry in Domestic Commodity Markets," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 729-766.
    3. Christophe Gouel, 2012. "Agricultural Price Instability: A Survey Of Competing Explanations And Remedies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 129-156, February.
    4. Kornher, Lukas & Kalkuhl, Matthias, 0. "Food Price Volatility in Developing Countries and its Determinants," Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, vol. 52.
    5. Bolotova, Yuliya & Connor, John M. & Miller, Douglas J., 2008. "The impact of collusion on price behavior: Empirical results from two recent cases," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1290-1307, November.
    6. Abdulai, Awudu, 2000. "Spatial price transmission and asymmetry in the Ghanaian maize market," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 327-349, December.
    7. Maitre d'Hotel, Elodie & le Cotty, Tristan & Jayne, Thomas S., 2012. "Is A Public Regulation Of Food Price Volatility Feasible In Africa? An Arch Approach In Kenya," 123rd Seminar, February 23-24, 2012, Dublin, Ireland 122551, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Matthias Kalkuhl & Lukas Kornher & Matthias Kalkuhl & Irfan Mujahid, 2015. "Food price volatility in developing countries – the role of trade and storage," EcoMod2015 8415, EcoMod.
    9. Yu, Yi & Willis, David, 2016. "The Effect of China’s Pork Reserve Program on Pork Price Volatility," 2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, 2016, Boston, Massachusetts 235829, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Marcel Fafchamps & Ruth Vargas Hill, 2008. "Price Transmission and Trader Entry in Domestic Commodity Markets," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 729-766.

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