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A bayesian approach to dynamic tobit models

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  • Steven Wei

Abstract

This paper develops a posterior simulation method for a dynamic Tobit model. The major obstacle rooted in such a problem lies in high dimensional integrals, induced by dependence among censored observations, in the likelihood function. The primary contribution of this study is to develop a practical and efficient sampling scheme for the conditional posterior distributions of the censored (i.e., unobserved) data, so that the Gibbs sampler with the data augmentation algorithm is successfully applied. The substantial differences between this approach and some existing methods are highlighted. The proposed simulation method is investigated by means of a Monte Carlo study and applied to a regression model of Japanese exports of passenger cars to the U.S. subject to a non-tariff trade barrier.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Wei, 1999. "A bayesian approach to dynamic tobit models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 417-439.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:emetrv:v:18:y:1999:i:4:p:417-439
    DOI: 10.1080/07474939908800353
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    Cited by:

    1. Laura Liu & Hyungsik Roger Moon & Frank Schorfheide, 2023. "Forecasting with a panel Tobit model," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 14(1), pages 117-159, January.
    2. Ordoñez-Callamand, Daniel & Hernandez-Leal, Juan D. & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2018. "When multiple objectives meet multiple instruments: Identifying simultaneous monetary shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 78-101.
    3. Jean-Paul Chavas & Kwansoo Kim, 2006. "An econometric analysis of the effects of market liberalization on price dynamics and price volatility," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 65-82, March.
    4. N. H. Chan & A. E. Brockwell, 2006. "Long-memory dynamic Tobit models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 351-367.
    5. Chavas, Jean-Paul & Kim, Kwansoo, 2005. "An Econometric Analysis of Price Dynamics in the Presence of a Price Floor: The Case of American Cheese," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(1), pages 21-35, April.
    6. George Monokroussos, 2013. "A Classical MCMC Approach to the Estimation of Limited Dependent Variable Models of Time Series," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 42(1), pages 71-105, June.
    7. Bykhovskaya, Anna & Duffy, James A., 2024. "The local to unity dynamic Tobit model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 241(2).
    8. Hsieh, Ping-Hung & Yang, J. Jimmy, 2009. "A censored stochastic volatility approach to the estimation of price limit moves," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 337-351, March.
    9. Kim, Kwansoo & Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2002. "A Dynamic Analysis Of The Effects Of A Price Support Program On Price Dynamics And Price Volatility," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(2), pages 1-20, December.
    10. Luc Bauwens & Michel Lubrano, 2007. "Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Disequilibrium Models: An Application to the Polish Credit Market," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(2-4), pages 469-486.
    11. Peter C. Austin, 2002. "Bayesian Extensions of the Tobit Model for Analyzing Measures of Health Status," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 22(2), pages 152-162, April.
    12. Dagne Getachew & Huang Yangxin, 2012. "Bayesian inference for a nonlinear mixed-effects Tobit model with multivariate skew-t distributions: application to AIDS studies," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, September.
    13. Anna Bykhovskaya & James A. Duffy, 2022. "The Local to Unity Dynamic Tobit Model," Papers 2210.02599, arXiv.org, revised May 2024.
    14. Jouchi Nakajima & Mike West, 2013. "Bayesian Analysis of Latent Threshold Dynamic Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(2), pages 151-164, April.
    15. Diansheng Dong & Todd M. Schmit & Harry Kaiser, 2012. "Modelling household purchasing behaviour to analyse beneficial marketing strategies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(6), pages 717-725, February.
    16. Degiannakis, Stavros & Xekalaki, Evdokia, 2004. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (ARCH) Models: A Review," MPRA Paper 80487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Wei, Steven X., 2002. "A censored-GARCH model of asset returns with price limits," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 197-223, March.
    18. Dong, Diansheng & Chung, Chanjin & Kaiser, Harry M., 2001. "Panel Data Double-Hurdle Model: An Application To Dairy Advertising," 2001 Annual meeting, August 5-8, Chicago, IL 20502, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    19. Kerem Tuzcuoglu, 2019. "Composite Likelihood Estimation of an Autoregressive Panel Probit Model with Random Effects," Staff Working Papers 19-16, Bank of Canada.
    20. James A. Duffy & Sophocles Mavroeidis & Sam Wycherley, 2022. "Cointegration with Occasionally Binding Constraints," Papers 2211.09604, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2025.

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