IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A censored stochastic volatility approach to the estimation of price limit moves

  • Hsieh, Ping-Hung
  • Yang, J. Jimmy
Registered author(s):

    A censored stochastic volatility model is developed to reconstruct a return series censored by price limits, one popular form of market stabilization mechanisms. When price limits are reached, the observed prices are truncated and the equilibrium prices are unobservable, which makes further financial analyses difficult. The model offers theoretically sound estimates of censored returns and is demonstrated via simulations to outperform existing approaches with respect to the estimates of model parameters, unconditional means, and standard deviations. The algorithm is applied to model stock and futures returns and results are consistent with the simulation outcomes.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6VFG-4TYYR1W-2/2/fb765e13af95e72cdd8447c1f6ba0a6c
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 16 (2009)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 337-351

    as
    in new window

    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:337-351
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Jeff Chung & Li Gan, 2005. "Estimating the effect of price limits on limit-hitting days," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(1), pages 79-96, 03.
    2. Miller, M.H., 1989. "Commentary: Volatility, Prices Resolution, And Effectiveness Of Price Limits," Papers t8, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    3. Lee, Lung-fei, 1999. "Estimation of dynamic and ARCH Tobit models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 355-390, October.
    4. Roll, Richard, 1984. "Orange Juice and Weather," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 861-80, December.
    5. Kodres, Laura E, 1993. "Tests of Unbiasedness in the Foreign Exchange Futures Markets: An Examination of Price Limits and Conditional Heteroscedasticity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(3), pages 464-90, July.
    6. Thomas H. McCurdy & Ieuan G. Morgan, 1986. "Tests of the Martingale Hypothesis for Foreign Currency Futures with Time-Varying Volatility," Working Papers 663, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
    7. Steven Wei, 1999. "A bayesian approach to dynamic tobit models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 417-439.
    8. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
    9. Sangjoon Kim, Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, . "Stochastic volatility: likelihood inference and comparison with ARCH models," Economics Papers W26, revised version of W, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    10. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Diebold, Francis X. & Ebens, Heiko, 2001. "The distribution of realized stock return volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 43-76, July.
    11. Wei, Steven X., 2002. "A censored-GARCH model of asset returns with price limits," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 197-223, March.
    12. Kim, Kenneth & Rhee, S Ghon, 1997. " Price Limit Performance: Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 885-99, June.
    13. Ma, C.K. & Rao, R.P. & Sears, R.S., 1989. "Volatility, Price Resolution, And The Effectiveness Of Price Limits," Papers t7, Columbia - Center for Futures Markets.
    14. Chou, Pin-Huang, 1997. "A Gibbs sampling approach to the estimation of linear regression models under daily price limits," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 39-62, February.
    15. Andersen, Torben G. & Chung, Hyung-Jin & Sorensen, Bent E., 1999. "Efficient method of moments estimation of a stochastic volatility model: A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 61-87, July.
    16. George, Thomas J. & Hwang, Chuan-Yang, 1995. "Transitory Price Changes and Price-Limit Rules: Evidence from the Tokyo Stock Exchange," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(02), pages 313-327, June.
    17. Lee, Sang Bin & Kim, Dae Joong, 1997. " Price Limits and Beta," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 35-52, July.
    18. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 1994. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models: Comments: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 413-17, October.
    19. Giorgio Calzolari & Gabriele Fiorentini, 1998. "A tobit model with garch errors," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 85-104.
    20. Chib, Siddhartha & Greenberg, Edward, 1994. "Bayes inference in regression models with ARMA (p, q) errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 183-206.
    21. Morgan, I G & Trevor, R G, 1999. "Limit Moves as Censored Observations of Equilibrium Futures Price in GARCH Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(4), pages 397-408, October.
    22. Nardari, Federico & Scruggs, John T., 2007. "Bayesian Analysis of Linear Factor Models with Latent Factors, Multivariate Stochastic Volatility, and APT Pricing Restrictions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(04), pages 857-891, December.
    23. Wei, K. C. John & Chiang, Raymond, 2004. "A GMM approach for estimation of volatility and regression models when daily prices are subject to price limits," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 445-461, September.
    24. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G. & Rossi, P.E.Peter E., 2004. "Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models with fat-tails and correlated errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 185-212, September.
    25. Cho, David D. & Russell, Jeffrey & Tiao, George C. & Tsay, Ruey, 2003. "The magnet effect of price limits: evidence from high-frequency data on Taiwan Stock Exchange," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 133-168, February.
    26. Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 1994. " Circuit Breakers and Market Volatility: A Theoretical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(1), pages 237-54, March.
    27. Renate Meyer & Jun Yu, 2000. "BUGS for a Bayesian analysis of stochastic volatility models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 198-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:16:y:2009:i:2:p:337-351. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.